Conditions favourable for withdrawal of Monsoon

September 6, 2013

A north-south trough extending from sub Himalayan West Bengal to north Bay of Bengal persists in lower levels. The off-­shore trough from south Konkan to Kerala coast exists as well. The Western Disturbance remains as an upper air trough over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir. An upper air cyclonic circulation in the lower levels is seen over south Orissa and adjoining Andhra Pradesh coast, which would subsequently develop into a low pressure area.

Temperatures are above normal over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Kerala and Gangetic West Bengal including parts of Karnataka. Whereas, they are below normal by 2-­3°C at many places in the northeast and some parts of Rayalaseema, due to rain activity.

A mostly dry spell has set in North India. In Uttar Pradesh temperature may rise due to subdued rain. Light showers, mainly in parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will bring down temperatures marginally.

Rain intensity will decrease drastically over east India. Temperatures in Bihar and east Arunachal Pradesh is likely to increase. While in the Gangetic belt of West Bengal and Jharkhand, where temperatures have been above normal by 2-­3°C, may come down.The hilly areas of Andhra Pradesh and Assam may receive light to moderate rain. North East will continue to enjoy below normal temperatures due to rain.

In central India, temperatures may drop marginally over Orissa and Chhattisgarh. On the other hand, Gujarat and west Madhya Pradesh will continue to remain hot. Temperatures in Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema will remain below normal by a few notches. The mercury may come down marginally in Andhra coast, as light rain is expected here.

Meanwhile, the conditions are favourable for the withdrawal of monsoon from west Rajasthan as there has been no rain since last few days. However, an official announcement from the Indian Meteorological Department is yet to be made.