Monsoon commences withdrawal from west Rajasthan around first few days of September. However, withdrawal dates keep fluctuating from season to season and sometimes undergo large variations from the scheduled dates. There is no correlation established between the monthly rainfall and the withdrawal pattern. There are occasions when the withdrawal commences late and the rainfall for the month remains deficit and conversely, the rainfall goes in excess of normal during early or timely withdrawal. Also there is no inference or any direct linkages between September rainfall and seasonal monsoon performance. However, on quite a few occasions, it is seen that September rainfall remains normal or above normal when the overall seasonal performance of monsoon is seen hovering around average or falling short of it. The last four years data is as given in the following table:
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| Seasonal R/F (LPA) | 102% | 102% | 93% | 106% |
| September R/F | 112% | 108% | 112% | 92% |
Skymet estimates that first ten days of September are likely to experience above normal rainfall for the country , particularly North West and Central India. The rainfall belt and the amounts are likely to shrink in the later half of the month. The total rainfall for the month is likely to remain normal or above normal and it stands least chance to record below normal rainfall.
