Since last week of June, most parts of Central and South India have been receiving scanty rainfall. Barring Tamil Nadu, south interior Kerala, and Karnataka, all other meteorological divisions have registered far below normal rainfall.
Rayalaseema, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh currently remain deficient in terms of rainfall recorded. Entire Maharashtra, Telangana, and coastal parts of Andhra Pradesh have also received only scanty rainfall during this period.
Scanty rainfall denotes -60% or less rainfall over a region. The reason behind this significantly low rainfall can be traced to the absence of a weather system over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. In fact, since last week of June, no prominent cyclonic circulation or low pressure area has developed over the two arms of Southwest Monsoon.
Currently, three significant typhoons can be seen over the West Pacific region. The three typhoons, Linfa, Chan-Hom, and Nangka, are attracting moist winds from Bay of Bengal towards the West Pacific region. As a result, Monsoon over most parts of the Indian sub-continent has weakened. Also, the axis of Monsoon trough is also running close to the foothills of Himalayas. This has confined the rainfall activity to the northern plains and foothills.
As per Skymet Meteorology Division in India, by July 14, the three typhoons churning in the West Pacific will mellow down and will eventually become insignificant. As the typhoons in the West Pacific begin to fade away, the normal flow of moist winds blowing in from the Bay of Bengal will be restored. This is expected to trigger the revival of Monsoon activities over Central and Peninsular India.
Weather models at Skymet also suggest that from July 9 onwards, parts of Central India including Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and Madhya Pradesh will start receiving light to moderate rain. But till then, rain deficiency over these parts of the country will further increase. However, by mid-July, the gap between normal and actual rainfall is likely to start decreasing. Whether these areas reach the normal monthly rainfall mark at the end of July, remains to be seen.
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