Even with the not up-to-the-mark rainfall activity this year, one can still say that adequate rainfall was witnessed by most parts of India. The rainfall figures for the country were not disappointing but not promising either. The country received 3% less than the usual rainfall.
The withdrawal of Monsoon commenced late, by 15 days, from West Rajasthan. Usually the withdrawal starts on September 15 from Anupgarh, Bikaner and Jaisalmer. This time around the withdrawal line did halt till the end of the month. And on September 27, the withdrawal line extends up to Jammu & Kashmir, West Punjab, West Haryana and Northern parts of Rajasthan.
At present the withdrawal line is still passing through Kupwara, Kukernag, Pathankot, Ludhiana, Churu Phalodi and Jaisalmer. This year withdrawal is delayed significantly. At present a feeble anti-cyclonic circulation is developing over Central Pakistan and conditions are becoming favorable for the withdrawal of Monsoon from Northwest India.
Criteria for withdrawal of Monsoon are:
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Termination of rainfall activity over the area for continuous 5 days.
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Establishment of anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere.
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Considerable reduction in moisture content from the atmosphere.
Now winds are changing direction over parts of Northwest India, from Easterly to Northwesterly and there is no rain activity since last many days. Even the moisture level is reducing gradually.
So in another 2-3 days we expect the anti-cyclonic circulation will get established over Central Pakistan and adjoining West Rajasthan. This will help the withdrawal of Monsoon from the country.
But there is a catch here, the weather modals are indicating rainfall activity around October 9-10. But this rain activity will be attributed to the Western Disturbance which normally starts affecting in the month of October. The prominent effect of the Western Disturbance which starts affecting West Himalayas can be expected from October and continue till February and March.
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