Evolving El Nino On Track: May Emerge Earlier Than Expected
Image: Skymet
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- La Niña is rapidly weakening, with only 4% probability during Feb–Apr 2026.
- ENSO-neutral dominates the spring outlook but declines as El Niño probabilities rise.
- El Niño chances increase to nearly 60% during peak Monsoon 2026.
- IOD remains neutral for now, with positive IOD emerging as the next likely scenario.
Climate Forecast Team at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies/Columbia Center for Climate Systems Research has issued the Feb 2026 ENSO Forecast. As of mid-Feb, the equatorial Pacific is experiencing declining La Niña conditions. The CCSR/IRI ENSO plume forecast places the probability of La Niña at just 4% for Feb–Apr 2026 and shifts the odds in favour of ENSO-neutral conditions (about 96%) for the same period. ENSO-neutral remains the most dominant category through Mar–May (90%) and Apr–Jun (65%), while El Niño probabilities increase rapidly during the same period. Starting in May–July, El Niño probabilities become higher than ENSO-neutral in the range of 58% to 61%, with ENSO-neutral the second most likely outcome.
ENSO: Both atmospheric and oceanic variables support the decline of La Niña conditions. The SOI also indicates weakening of the pressure gradient between the two regions, but remains within the La Niña domain.
The “evolving” El Niño conditions seem to have become more versatile. IRI model-based probabilities, as of mid-Feb, indicate a rise of the El Niño component to 60% during the peak monsoon period. The La Niña share is the least, and the magnitude of ENSO-neutral is also falling off significantly during the later half of the monsoon.
The observed SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region during the Nov–Jan 2026 season was -0.61°C, and for Jan 2026, it was -0.54°C. There was a spike in cooling over the central equatorial Pacific during the first two weeks of Feb, but the third and fourth weeks declined sharply. The latest Niño 3.4 index, as on 23 Feb 2026, was -0.5°C, which is barely the threshold mark of La Niña. Any further consistent decline will take it closer to ENSO-neutral conditions.
IOD: The Indian Ocean Dipole has remained above the positive threshold of +0.4°C for the last four consecutive weeks. The index value for the week ending 22 Feb 2026 was +0.63°C, the highest positive value since Mar 2025. As per the model forecast, throughout the Feb–Jun 2026 period, IOD-neutral conditions remain the most likely state. The other dominant feature is the gradual rise in the probability of positive IOD. In short, Feb 2026 favours IOD-neutral conditions, which continue to dominate through the outlook period, and positive IOD emerges as the next most probable scenario.
MJO: The Madden–Julian Oscillation has become increasingly coherent, but the amplitude has decreased substantially. The pulse is mainly confined to the inner circle and is currently propagating across the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) and is likely to cross over to the Maritime Continent in Phases 4 and 5. Further traversing eastward, it is likely to reach the Western Pacific during the second week of March 2026. Due to its weak amplitude and distant location, the Indian seas may remain dormant for the first half of March 2026.
La Niña’s transition to ENSO-neutral is likely within the Feb–Mar–Apr quarter. From historic records, neutral conditions after any La Niña episode do not last more than 3–4 months, as happened in 2000, 2008, 2018, and 2023. El Niño may start intensifying during the first half of Monsoon 2026.
