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MD Skymet, Jatin Singh: Break Monsoon is here, India to dry up for the next two weeks, revival can only be expected in the last week of July, with almost dry conditions prevailing across the country, soybean sowing may take a hit, no serious threat of flooding in Mumbai for the next 10 days

July 15, 2019 11:45 AM |

Monsoon status in India

The month of July started well in terms of good rainfall across the country. The Southwest Monsoon was very active in Central, East and Northeast India during the first ten days of the month. And every day there was a drop of about 2-3 per cent in the countrywide rainfall deficiency.

If we look at the rainfall data available with us from June 1 to July 13, there was 246.3 mm of rain in the country against the normal of 279.8 mm, which means the cumulative shortfall (countrywide rainfall deficiency) dropped to settle at 12% from 33% on June 30. This is clearly an outcome of some good rains in the first 10 days of July. Below is the latest subdivision wise rainfall deficiency in the country.

subdivision wise rainfall deficiency in the country

However, the situation will change now. As reiterated by Skymet, the Break Monsoon period has begun and rains across the country are going to fizzle out. A testimony to this fact is the rise in the countrywide rainfall deficiency to 13% yesterday. Due to weakening weather activity across the country there may be a further shortfall in rainfall amounts. The Northern Limit of Monsoon or the NLM also hasn’t moved since July 10.

The NLM is currently passing through Barmer, Jodhpur, Churu, Ludhiana and Kapurthala.

Progress of Monsoon

Generally, Break Monsoon conditions are seen in the month of August with the monsoon trough shifting to the foothills of the Himalayas. It is rare for such a condition to be prevailing in the month of July, which is the case right now. Rains are certainly going to cease over most parts of the country during this time.

Due to the Monsoon now becoming feeble for at least a week, only a few places in East India, foothills, Northeast India and Konkan and Goa will observe rain, while the remaining parts of the country will witness almost dry conditions. Central and Northwest India will be the worst hit. South India, which is already staring at a deficiency of 28% will also bear the brunt of poor rains. Though, some rain may be recorded in Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu during this Break Monsoon period.

In the wake of the Monsoon weakening for the next one week, the sowing of cotton, soybean, green gram and maize which was progressing slowly in regions like Marathwada, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan will take a hit. Other Kharif crops like rice, pulses will also bear the brunt of the Break Monsoon period.

Meanwhile, there is a weather system coming up in the Bay of Bengal around July 17. But this system is not expected to be very significant as it will fizzle out in about two days after it forms.

During this period parts of the South Peninsula and Odisha might observe light rain. So, there isn’t much expected in terms of rain for the entire week across the country.

The surge around Mumbai is going to be weak. Therefore, there is a low probability of serious flooding in Mumbai in the next 10 days. Rainfall intensity will also be weaker than the previous fortnight.

Image credit: DNA India

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