MD Skymet, Jatin Singh: Break Monsoon is here, India to dry up for the next two weeks, revival can only be expected in the last week of July, with almost dry conditions prevailing across the country, soybean sowing may take a hit, no serious threat of flooding in Mumbai for the next 10 days

July 15, 2019 11:45 AM |

Monsoon status in India

The month of July started well in terms of good rainfall across the country. The Southwest Monsoon was very active in Central, East and Northeast India during the first ten days of the month. And every day there was a drop of about 2-3 per cent in the countrywide rainfall deficiency.

If we look at the rainfall data available with us from June 1 to July 13, there was 246.3 mm of rain in the country against the normal of 279.8 mm, which means the cumulative shortfall (countrywide rainfall deficiency) dropped to settle at 12% from 33% on June 30. This is clearly an outcome of some good rains in the first 10 days of July. Below is the latest subdivision wise rainfall deficiency in the country.

subdivision wise rainfall deficiency in the country

However, the situation will change now. As reiterated by Skymet, the Break Monsoon period has begun and rains across the country are going to fizzle out. A testimony to this fact is the rise in the countrywide rainfall deficiency to 13% yesterday. Due to weakening weather activity across the country there may be a further shortfall in rainfall amounts. The Northern Limit of Monsoon or the NLM also hasn’t moved since July 10.

The NLM is currently passing through Barmer, Jodhpur, Churu, Ludhiana and Kapurthala.

Progress of Monsoon

Generally, Break Monsoon conditions are seen in the month of August with the monsoon trough shifting to the foothills of the Himalayas. It is rare for such a condition to be prevailing in the month of July, which is the case right now. Rains are certainly going to cease over most parts of the country during this time.

Due to the Monsoon now becoming feeble for at least a week, only a few places in East India, foothills, Northeast India and Konkan and Goa will observe rain, while the remaining parts of the country will witness almost dry conditions. Central and Northwest India will be the worst hit. South India, which is already staring at a deficiency of 28% will also bear the brunt of poor rains. Though, some rain may be recorded in Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu during this Break Monsoon period.

In the wake of the Monsoon weakening for the next one week, the sowing of cotton, soybean, green gram and maize which was progressing slowly in regions like Marathwada, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan will take a hit. Other Kharif crops like rice, pulses will also bear the brunt of the Break Monsoon period.

Meanwhile, there is a weather system coming up in the Bay of Bengal around July 17. But this system is not expected to be very significant as it will fizzle out in about two days after it forms.

During this period parts of the South Peninsula and Odisha might observe light rain. So, there isn’t much expected in terms of rain for the entire week across the country.

The surge around Mumbai is going to be weak. Therefore, there is a low probability of serious flooding in Mumbai in the next 10 days. Rainfall intensity will also be weaker than the previous fortnight.

Image credit: DNA India

For accurate weather forecast and updates, download Skymet Weather (Android App | iOS App) App.

Weather Forecast

Other Latest Stories

Weather on Twitter
आपकी जानकारी के लिए बता दें कि पंजाब और हरियाणा 15 जून से पहले यानि मॉनसून आने से पहले धान की बुआई को इसलिए रोका ग…
Sunday, November 17 18:00Reply
The upper reaches of Ladakh and eastern parts of #Jammu and #Kashmir may receive short spell of light rains during…
Sunday, November 17 17:30Reply
Night temperatures will also follow a decreasing trend during the next two to three days over the western…
Sunday, November 17 17:30Reply
मिनी मॉनसून यानी उत्तर पूर्वी मानसून दक्षिण भारत के राज्यों पर सक्रिय रहने वाला है, जिसके चलते अनेक स्थानों पर बारि…
Sunday, November 17 17:00Reply
अब पूरे सप्ताह तक राजस्थान में मौसम शुष्क बना रहने की संभावना है। अगले 24 घंटों के दौरान, उत्तरी दिशा से चलने वाली…
Sunday, November 17 16:09Reply
Major cities of #Chennai and #Bengaluru would also see #Monsoon #rains, wherein the former would see moderate rains…
Sunday, November 17 15:30Reply
As per weathermen, #Monsoon rains of light to moderate rains would persist for another 2-3 days over Kerala, Coasta…
Sunday, November 17 15:30Reply
Some scientists believe that there is a connection between a warmer planet and cold blasts of weather like the one…
Sunday, November 17 15:00Reply
It’s not even mid-November and already multiple towns in North America are witnessing icy cold weather. It has alre…
Sunday, November 17 15:00Reply
According to some scientists the frequency as well as the intensity of these cold snaps will only increase over the…
Sunday, November 17 15:00Reply

latest news

Skymet weather

Download the Skymet App

Our app is available for download so give it a try