Courtesy good rains during the last week, the large rainfall deficiency of September has partially been covered and has now dropped from 30% to 13%. The pan India Monsoon tally remains above normal at 107% of LPA (Long-period average). The season’s average rainfall of 880mm has already been achieved ahead of time. Decent rains during this week also may take it further to 108 or even 109% for the second consecutive year.
The government has achieved record procurement of wheat and rice in the 2019-20 season. The high procurement was significant in view of COVID-19 pandemic, but the flip side of increase stocks do create storage problems as well as wastages. The prolonged state of the pandemic has led to a soft economy for most sectors excepting few. The alarming shrink of GDP by 23% is albeit worrisome but Agri-sector seems to have rescued from an otherwise possible disaster. In the backdrop of bountiful Monsoon, the allied sectors of seeds, fertilizers and tractor industry have fared exceptionally well. These are instrumental to offset partially the deep economic malaise brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. The tractor sales in the country have clocked over 35% year on year growth in July on the back of robust agricultural activities. The emerging trends of enhancing sales in the subsequent months go on to prove that spike seen early in the Kharif season was not just pent-up demand but vindicates sector’s growth potential. A 14% increase in Kharif sowing area has resulted in a 34% growth in fertiliser’s sales, indicating the Agri-economy has largely been untouched by the pandemic. The fertilisers’ sales rose for 9th month in a row and exceeded a recorded of 9million tonnes in July itself. A good Monsoon coupled with reverse migration of farm labourers appears to be heading for a bumper Kharif.
The movement of a low-pressure area across the central parts of the country is going to drench Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. Absence of weather activity over Northwest India may be construed as an indicator of withdrawal of Monsoon commencing from west Rajasthan shortly.
Least weather activity is expected over the plains and hills as well during the week. It is an indication of Monsoon withdrawal pattern setting up in the next few days. Rise in the day temperatures and drop in the humidity levels are expected over most parts. Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand are expected to have scattered rains and thundershowers on most days of the week more intense on 23rd and 24th of September.
East and North-East India
The entire region is going to witness increased weather activity throughout the week. Fairly widespread rains and thundershowers along with lightning strikes are expected over Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. Heavy to very heavy rains are likely over Sikkim, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh. The state of Nagaland and Manipur will also experience intense rains and thundershowers on 21st and 22nd September and again between 25th to 27th September.
The movement of low- pressure area across central parts from Odisha to Madhya Pradesh will be resulting active to vigorous Monsoon conditions over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh. The activity will be more intense in the first half of the week. Least weather activity will be experienced over Gujarat where it will remain confined to south Gujarat and adjacent parts of coastal Saurashtra. Intense rains are likely over Konkan including Mumbai on 21st and 22nd September.
Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh will experience rain and thundershowers on most days but more intense on 21st 25th and 26th September. Coastal Karnataka and northern parts of Kerala will receive heavy rains at the beginning of the week 21st and 22nd of September and this activity will be mild during the rest of the week. The city of Bengaluru can expect some moderate showers during the second half of the week. Tamil Nadu will be the least active state during this period.
Delhi NCR will experience hot weather conditions with temperatures in excess of 35 degrees at the start of the week. Mild thunderstorms and a few showers are expected between the 22nd and 24th of September. The signs of Monsoon withdrawal are appearing and is quite likely by the first week of October.
Cloudy sky with warm and sultry conditions are expected throughout the week. Also, short-duration light and patchy showers are likely in the evening and night hours during the second half of the week.
Since March, the air quality of Delhi and NCR has remained in ‘Satisfactory’ levels. There were various reasons for ‘Good’ or ‘Satisfactory’ air quality. Due to lockdown, almost all the factories and vehicular traffic remained absent until mid-July. Construction work also stopped. Due to scanty traffic and absence of commercial activities, smoke particles and dust particles remained very low in the lower atmosphere.
As the gradual unlock commenced air quality also start deteriorating. During last week, many areas of Delhi and NCR where in ‘Moderate’ category. But now, PM2.5 is at ‘Satisfactory’ level. PM10 is in ‘Moderate’ category in some pockets of Delhi and NCR. Reason for this spike in pollution levels can be attributed to increased traffic, the opening of factories and construction sites. Another important feature of the increase in pollution can be the weather. Since the last two weeks, weather of North-West India including Delhi and NCR is almost dry and hot.
Sometimes, prolonged dry spell associated with moderate westerly winds from Rajasthan leads to an increase in dust particle. That is why PM10 level is in the ‘Moderate’ category in some areas.
There may be light showers over Delhi NCR around September 22nd to 24th. Therefore, we do not expect much increase in pollution levels over Northwest India including Delhi for at least next 15 days.
After the withdrawal of Monsoon, by the first week of October, winds will be westerly and north-westerly for prolonged duration and stubble burning will also commence in the neighbouring states of Punjab and Haryana. Therefore, the chances of an increase in pollution levels are expected by the third week of October.