Dry Weather This Week For Delhi: Monsoon Withdrawal Unlikely Yet

Delhi witnessed dry weather conditions for the sixth straight day. Clear sky, moderate breeze, and a rise in mercury levels over the last few days are indicators of a weakening monsoon stream. Yet, no immediate monsoon retreat is likely from the national capital. In any case, as per norms, the withdrawal must commence from West Rajasthan and thereafter quickly vacate the plains of North India.

Earlier, the normal withdrawal date of the monsoon for Delhi was 21st September. Following a revision of dates in 2020, based on fresh data between 1971 and 2019, the new date of 25th September has been fixed for Delhi. Monsoon withdrawal is increasingly seen getting delayed; last year, it exited the capital city on 2nd October. This year too, the withdrawal is unlikely to commence before the scheduled date of 25th September.

There is no active weather system in close proximity to Delhi. The main trigger is the monsoon trough, and its western end remains indiscernible in the lower levels of the atmosphere. At a height of 3,000 feet, considered the standard level to locate the trough, the prevailing westerly winds suggest a displacement of this feature. In the absence of the monsoon trough and any westerly system, weather conditions are likely to remain benign, at least for the rest of this week.

There is a cyclonic circulation over Coastal Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, persisting for the last two days. The westward movement of this system will place it over Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra in the next three days. This will coincide with the arrival of another western disturbance over the northern mountains. The interaction between the two systems will revive weather activity over the northern plains. Delhi is also expected to get its share. A thick sheet of clouds and a pulse of monsoon showers is likely next week, between 16th and 20th September. This will restrict any early withdrawal from Delhi and may even extend beyond the scheduled date.