Mumbai Lean Monsoon Phase To Continue, Uptick In The Second Half Of August

The southwest monsoon activity has been lying dormant for the capital city of Mumbai for over the last 10 days. The city had received decent showers between 20th and 25th July and nearly a lull thereafter. In the first six days of August, the city has received a mere 9.5mm rainfall. The month of August is the second rainiest after July, with a decent monthly normal of 585.2mm. The city had performed quite well last year but defies the trend and track so far. It will take another one week or ten days to resume normal and witness typical August Mumbai rains.

Mumbai gets heavy rains on account of an active off-shore trough or any monsoon system forming over the Bay of Bengal. Both of these are missing, as of now. There are ‘break-in-monsoon’ conditions prevailing over the country. In such cases, the rainfall gets confined to a limited region, and Mumbai does not figure among the favorites. However, conditions are likely to build up soon, around mid-month, for a decent spell of rainfall for the city and suburbs.

A low pressure is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal. As a precursor, the cyclonic circulation is expected over the Northwest Bay of Bengal around 11th–12th August. It may take another 24–48 hours to reorganize and consolidate. Further inland movement will increase the chance of the first modest or heavy rainfall for the coastal city of Mumbai in particular, and the Konkan Coast in general. Till then, Mumbaikars will have to bear with the warm, moist, and sultry conditions. Day temperature is likely to remain in the mid-30s, and the minimum in the morning will hang around 24°–25°C.