Skymet Weather Forecasts Below Normal Monsoon For India in 2026

Key Takeaways:

• Monsoon 2026 will likely be below normal at 94% of LPA
• El Niño is expected to strengthen, impacting the second half of season
• Central and North-West India may face a rainfall deficit
• June will be stable, but rainfall is likely to weaken from July to September

Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agriculture risk solution company, has released its Monsoon forecast for 2026. Skymet expects the upcoming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 94% ( with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for the 4-month long period from June to September. The spread is below normal, being 90-95% of LPA. In its earlier foreshadow in Jan 2026, Skymet assessed the Monsoon 2026 to be subpar and now retains the same.

According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, “After a year and a half of La Nina conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral. Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest Monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Niño return may presage a weaker Monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular”.

Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole has the capacity to drive Monsoon circulation. A strong positive IOD event during the season has the potential to partially avert the ill effects of El Niño. IOD is expected to be neutral or delicately positive. It will approvingly contribute to a decent start of Monsoon. However, the chances of Monsoon getting impaired during the second half of season can not be dismissed. The seasonal rainfall distribution will be at risk of being diverse and biased.

In terms of Geographical prospects, Skymet expects the core Monsoon rainfed zone of central and western parts to witness inadequate rainfall. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to observe less than normal rains, and more so, during August-September. East and northeastern parts will be placed better than the rest of the country.

According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are :

• 0% chance of excess ( seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• 10% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
• 20% chance of normal ( seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• 40% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 30% chance of drought ( seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)

On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follow :

June - 101% of LPA (LPA for June = 165.3mm)

• 70% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 20% chance of below normal

July – 95% of LPA (LPA for July = 280.5mm)

• 40% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 40% chance of below normal

August – 92% of LPA (LPA for August = 254.9mm)

• 20% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 60% chance of below normal

September – 89% of LPA (LPA for September = 167.9mm)

• 20% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 70% chance of below normal

About Skymet Weather

Skymet weather is India’s largest weather monitoring and agri-risk solutions company. The only private weather forecasting agency in India, Skymet weather was established in 2003 and has been providing reliable and accessible weather forecasts since then. Skymet runs its own numerical models and provides an array of weather-based services through data and information tools. It uses innovation to provide weather forecasts to power companies, media conglomerates, farmer innovation services, agriculture input producers, and logistic operators. It has pioneered uses for long-range Monsoon weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing technologies, and unmanned aerial vehicles in India.