80 per cent probability of El Nino, a growing concern for Indian Monsoon 2019

March 22, 2019 6:36 PM |

Monsoon in IndiaThe sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean continued to be above normal for this week as well, cementing the arrival of El Niño. Besides this, the pattern of anomalous convection and winds are also in line of El Niño. Here’s a look at the recent Niño Index (in °C):

El Nino indexEl Niño is declared when Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is higher than or equal to 0.5°C for overlapping 3 months for five consecutive episodes. As reiterated earlier, till now ONI has been higher than threshold for four episodes. In fact, indications are strong that most likely the fifth episode would also be higher than 0.5°C.

With this, probabilities of El Niño have strengthened manifolds. As per the latest model output, El Niño probabilities have now increase considerably to 80% through March and May. We can see a decline thereafter but a gradual one and by June and July, i.e. through core Monsoon months, the probabilities would still remain as high as 60%.

In fact, El Niño would maintain itself throughput the year with probability not falling 50% even by the fall.

El Nino model outputAccording to weathermen, it was known that El Niño was growing but we expected it to slow down gradually by spring to summer. However, with sub surface temperatures being significantly warmer than average, it is quite indicative that probabilities are not going to drop anytime soon.

Water has got large capacity to retain heat and unlike land, water bodies do not lose its heat. In coming months, heat content will remain high, much above the threshold values during Monsoon months.

Although El Niño does not follow any specific pattern but whenever El Niño is there, more than 80% of seasons are related to below normal out of which 60% are invariably drought.

The only difference between this El Niño and other is that it is a devolving El Niño year. Evolving El Niño has the strength to corrupt Monsoon rains completely, while devolving El Niño does not punish the Monsoon rains to that extent. However, presence of any kind of El Niño is associated with below normal Monsoon rains.

Image Credit:en.wikipedia.org

Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com

For accurate weather forecast and updates, download Skymet Weather (Android App | iOS App) App.

Weather Forecast

Other Latest Stories

Weather on Twitter
ताजा आंकड़ों से तुलना करें तो, प्रदूषण का स्तर ठंड की शुरुआत में ही खतरनाक स्तर पर पहुँच गया है और तो और अक्टूबर के… t.co/mtIBG74RnB
Friday, October 18 15:13Reply
चेन्नई में नुंगमबक्कम में पिछले 24 घंटों के दौरान 101 मिमी की बारिश दर्ज हुई है। इस सीज़न में पहली बार ऐसा हुआ है ज… t.co/lcxarSC5AQ
Friday, October 18 14:36Reply
#Weather activity is going to pick up pace over #Kerala in the next 2-3 days. #WeatherForecast of very heavy rains… t.co/80jppY6O4N
Friday, October 18 14:33Reply
Kannur and Thrissur also saw 39 mm and 7 mm of rain, respectively. #Kerala #KeralaRains #KeralaFloods #weathert.co/GEY05zYIWp
Friday, October 18 14:32Reply
Kozhikode in a span of 24 hours from 8.30 am on Thursday received 74 mm of heavy rain, while Kottayam and Karipur r… t.co/8MBXy3CQJ4
Friday, October 18 14:32Reply
The Northeast Monsoon has already made an entry into the southern states and Kerala has started to observe weather… t.co/fJfyetMXi5
Friday, October 18 14:31Reply
Kerala gears up for very heavy rain, some places already pounded by good showers #Kerala #KeralaRainst.co/awBIZtJGhK
Friday, October 18 14:31Reply
A Low-Pressure Area is soon expected to develop over Bay of Bengal which will unleash heavy rains over #TamilNadu.… t.co/vrYFr0Q5aO
Friday, October 18 14:15Reply
During the last 24 hours, the Nungambakkam observatory in #Chennai has received 101 mm of rain. This is for the fir… t.co/228U7TdW5U
Friday, October 18 14:12Reply
The #rains will remain concentrated more over the coast. Thus, rains will be more pronounced over #Mumbai which is… t.co/pU173tg8K4
Friday, October 18 13:27Reply

latest news

Skymet weather

Download the Skymet App

Our app is available for download so give it a try