Active Monsoon Over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha : Week Long Wet Spell Likely

Monsoon rains are likely over Indo Gangetic plains and eastern states of the country, commencing anytime soon.  The beleaguered states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal will witness twist in the weather conditions. Decent monsoon showers, possibly heavy on few occasions, at some places will come to the rescue of drought stricken pockets of these states. The weather activity will start from Odisha and Chhattisgarh and incrementally extend to cover all the monsoon deficit states over north and east India.

As anticipated, well marked cyclonic circulation has emerged over North Bay of Bengal and coastal parts of Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal. This feature will, more or less remain stationary in the next 24hr and may become a low pressure area over the same region. The system will move partly inland and rest over sea on 17^thJuly. The next day, on 18^thJuly, it will predominantly move inland with its support circulation covering Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. The monsoon system is not showing any signs of rapid movement and is expected to meander over that area for the subsequent 3-4 days.  It is likely to connect with the monsoon trough along the Indo Gangetic plains and revive the monsoon activity over North, Central and eastern parts of the country.

To begin with, weather activity will start today itself and stay for next 48hr covering Odisha, South Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and extreme southern parts of West Bengal. On 17^thand 18^th, in addition to these areas, East Madhya Pradesh will also witness fairly wide spread rain and thundershower.  On 19^thJuly, this weather system will connect with the monsoon trough, which is in the process of shifting northward to retain its normal position. Between 19^th and 24^thJuly, most parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal will experience moderate monsoon showers, which may go heavy at some places.

State of Uttar Pradesh is marred with a large deficit of 60% rainfall and the other 3 eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal have shortfall of 40%-50%.  Few districts in these states have perpetual deficiency and 20 districts of Bihar have shortfall in excess of 60% rainfall. Uttar Pradesh is worst hit state where 71 out of 75 districts have large deficit or high deficit rainfall, since the monsoon arrived over the state. The most prominent districts being : Kaushambi (-98%), Banda (-90%), Kanpur Dehat (-89%) and Farrukhabad (-88%). This upcoming wet spell will, at least, partly address the woes of farming community.  This may also prove ‘savior’ of their seasonal crops.