It has been extremely active year for South-Asian seas. Back to back cyclonic storms have been forming be it in Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, Gulf of Thailand or South China Sea. During the last 24 hours, we saw Cyclone Bulbul battering Odisha and West Bengal coasts of India, while Cyclone Nakri battered Vietnam.
The Cyclone Bulbul was an offshoot of Storm ‘Matmo’ which had previously developed in South China Sea. However, Cyclonic Storm Nakri does not seem to follow the same track. Nakri has already made a landfall over Southeast Vietnam coast as a weakened storm. The system is likely to weaken significantly during the next six hours, while moving across central parts of Vietnam, South Thailand and South Myanmar.
In fact, by the time it would reach Thailand, it would have weakened up to great extent and might only give some rain over the north of Thailand in the next 2-3 days. Nakri would continue to track westwards and weakening simultaneously. It is likely to re-emerge in Bay of Bengal by November 14, most likely as a feeble low pressure area or may be even as a cyclonic circulation.
Weather models do not predict further strengthening of the system while travelling in Bay of Bengal in west-northwest direction. According to weathermen, we can expect only remnants of the system to reach Bay of Bengal, which would fail to gain strength. However, it would be responsible for reviving the Northeast Monsoon , which at present is subdued.
Weather models are indicating this feeble system would travel towards North Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, triggering scattered light rains at many places with some moderate spells from November 14-16.
Image Credits – India Today
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