Resolving debates about the onset of Monsoon 2014, Skymet Meteorology Division in India confirmed its arrival on the 28th of May, as most conditions stipulated for its onset over Kerala were largely met. Marginal variation of ± 2 days for the onset is always granted and the variations are generally amplified during the El Nino years, when one cannot rely entirely on set methods to indicate the onset date of the Monsoon.
Southwest Monsoon, after ushering in a little early, made a sluggish start with subdued activity in the initial phase and made a very slow advancement.
Southwest Monsoon has been extremely weak in terms of both intensity and coverage. The month of June was very gloomy for the country as the cumulative rain deficit mounted to 43% by the end of June and at present stands at 41%. The overall deficit till the middle of June stood at 45%. Thereafter, some good showers in the Northeast and West Bengal reduced the deficit to about 36% by the third week of June. But it again started to mount due to lack of rain in other parts of the country.
Reiterating, El Nino in India affects the overall Monsoon performance, including onset, periodic coverage and withdrawal. In fact, this year the trend followed by Southwest Monsoon has been abnormal or probably unique. Rain actually decreased in major cities right after Southwest Monsoon ushered in.
Here we will take up Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad and Surat as examples.
Delhi
Monsoon current reached the national capital by the 6th of July when the Safdarjung Observatory received only 0.9 mm of rain. On the 3rd and 4th of July, Delhi received just 4 mm and 7 mm of pre-monsoon rain, respectively. Delhi/NCR witnessed a long dry spell when temperatures and humidity levels kept rising.
Delhi experienced hot and sultry weather as temperatures rose from 37⁰C on 6th to 42.3⁰C on the 12th of July, due to lack of Monsoon rain. Minimums too settled in the higher-twenties, touching even 30⁰C. Finally, 26 mm of rain on the 13th brought some relief. However, only south and central parts of Delhi received rain.
Mumbai
Monsoon reached Mumbai around 17th June, when the city received 32 mm of rain in the span of 24 hours. There was lull for rest of the month. This year the month of June has been the driest in over a decade in Mumbai, leaving the city with a rain deficit of over 65%. The total of 87 mm of rain was the third lowest monthly total in last 63 years. However, July began on a relatively good note. Click here to know more.
Ahmedabad and Surat (Gujarat)
By 15th June, Southwest Monsoon generally covers Saurashtra and north Gujarat. It is true that the progress from Saurashtra to Kutch is generally slow but by 1st of July we observe good rain over Kutch. But this year represented a poor scenario for Gujarat as Monsoon rain over the state was delayed beyond a limit of repair.
Surat holds a monthly average of 600 mm of rain in the month of July but so far has received only 6 mm of rain. Similarly, the Monsoon current has reached Ahmedabad but good showers are yet to visit the city. Holding a monthly average of 281 mm, the city has received only 0.3 mm of rain till now. However, according to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, some rain is in the offing for Gujarat.
Both Surat and Ahmedabad received heavy rain in 2013, recording 641 mm and 468.5 mm of rain, respectively. Kutch received 64% excess rainfall while the plains recorded 31% excess Monsoon rain. Only light rain is in store for the state and looking at the present scenario it could be the driest state this El Nino year.
