Southwest Monsoon 2021 has registered a healthy normal rainfall in the 1st half of the season. At halfway mark, season’s cumulative rainfall count is 449mm against the normal of 452.2mm ( 01stJune – 31stJuly). Total rainfall is 99.3% of the long period average (LPA) and stands nearly as tall as other seasons in the recent past. LPA for the 2nd half of the season (Aug+Sep) is 428.4 mm, a shade less than the 1st half.
Visible shortfall at midway of season is witnessed in the state of Gujarat, Kerala and Northeast India. Kerala and Northeast region are the rainiest pockets and therefore can absorb deficiency of about 10-15% without impacting the environmental balance. But shortfall of 20% or more leaves perceivable markers. Gujarat region is experiencing mild distress with 33% deficiency over mainland and 37% over Saurashtra & Kutch.
The sub-divisions of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, East Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh have recovered from the seasonal shortfall. The drought prone region of Marathwada enjoys an excess of 32% and the other two sub divisions of Madhya Maharashtra and Vidarbha are also comfortable by registering surplus of 24% and 3% respectively.
The month of August starts on a wet note for the Northern and Central parts. West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan will experience heavy to very heavy rainfall during the next 72 hours and gradually reduce thereafter. Monsoon trough will have a tendency to shift north of its normal position from 7thAugust onward and practically shift along the foothills with effect from 9th August. Accordingly, the rainfall belt will shift along the foothills covering Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, North Bengal, Sikkim and Northeast India.