G for Government, G for God…
It might rain, it might not..
When IMD says its Monsoon, and when Skymet says it’s not…
Just as the Monsoon buzz was exponentially growing louder and shriekier, the government of India decided to declare the onset of Monsoon 2016.
Anyway, what could be a better day than today. While playing another social media battle in the wee hours of the day, I realized that people and particularly the all dedicated Twitterati need to be explained certain prerogatives of the government and few characteristics of the Monsoon. The two things that have kept me preoccupied at the moment.
Before getting onto the progress and behavior of Monsoon 2016, I would like to emphasize that Monsoon onset is an objective criterion applied subjectively.
Reiterating myself, Monsoon behaves in a truant manner. The onset phase leaves many questions unanswered. The onset of Monsoon, just like its other aspects, is a complex phenomenon involving extensive research.
Generally, Monsoon is declared after May 25. In fact, Monsoon can be declared any time post May 10 and looking at its further progress can be withdrawn as well. Yes, the decider of many fates, the life, and death factor of many sometimes is nothing less than an amusement.
For records, before declaring the onset of Monsoon in Kerala we should follow certain guidelines, which revolve around changes in rainfall, wind pattern, humidity and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR).
I have said earlier as well that the onset of Monsoon is functional with some parameters and should be declared only after conforming to these standards. Said it earlier and saying it again, compliance to all the criterion simultaneously to the copybook effect is generally difficult to attain.
Skymet Weather had predicted the onset of Monsoon between May 28 and 30. At a time when Skymet Weather had declared the onset of Monsoon, all the criteria were met barring the OLR value.
The rainfall criterion mentions that at least 60% of the 14 weather stations across Kerala and coastal Karnataka should record 2.5 mm rainfall or more for two consecutive days. Rainfall figures had well exceeded the requirement in the weather stations of Minicoy, Amini, Kollam, Thiruvananthapuram, Kannur, Punalur, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kudlu and Mangalore.
Secondly, the depth of the westerly winds had also met the benchmark of 600 hPa or 12000 ft high from the equator to 10°N Latitude and between Longitude 55°E and 80°E.
The zonal wind speed over the area was also above 15 knots for two consecutive days. Take a look at the wind speed from May 24 to 31:
Only the OLR was slightly above the threshold of 200 Wm-2 in the box confined by Latitude 5-10°N and Longitude 70-75°E. Nevertheless, it was hovering around 200 Wm-2.
Here’s a look at the OLR values from May 24 to 31:
Now my question is, has the OLR bet been confirmed now? Take a look:
The OLR value has still not been met for consecutive two days! But its Monsoon onset for India.
Monsoon will now quickly progress to cover Mumbai by June 11 and probably entire Northeast India. Just as all of you, we will eagerly track its gait and nuances.
Featured image credit - skyscrapercity.com
Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com