Updated on May 15 7:00 AM: Cyclone over the Arabian Sea to intensify further into severe cyclonic storm shortly
Cyclone Tauktae has tracked North-Northeast slowly with a speed of less than 10kmh in the past 6 hour. The storm will move shortly towards north and later recurve towards North-Northwest. There is a bit of divergence among various models about the timings of recurvature. Actually, after moving over open waters of the Central Arabian Sea for about 48-72hr and intensifying to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, there is the possibility of slight change in the track again before it finally heads for western parts of Saurashtra.
Environmental conditions continue to be favorable in terms of weak vertical wind shear and very warm sea surface temperature (SST). The SST is dropping a bit close to the coastal belt of the Sind (Pakistan) and Gujarat coast. A fresh call will be taken to comment on these aspects at an appropriate time. Hazardous weather conditions need to be tackled effectively over the next 48 hours over Kerala, Karnataka, and Konkan.
Updated on May 14 6:30 PM: Cyclone forms over the Arabian Sea, to intensify further into severe cyclonic storm shortly
Cyclone alert is already issued by Skymet and the first tropical storm of this year is likely in the Arabian Sea shortly. There is a mesoscale vortex off the Kerala coast over Southeast Arabian Sea. This feature is showing signs of rapid intensification and a low-pressure area is likely to form soon. Further quick escalation to a depression first and then cyclone is very likely.
The state of Kerala has already been lashed with very heavy rains in the past 24 hours. The state capital Thiruvananthapuram has recorded 156mm rainfall in the past 24 hours, the highest at least in the last 10 years. Some other stations also have received moderate to heavy showers: Punalur 92mm, Kozhikode 50mm, Alappuzha 32mm, Kottayam 30mm, and Cochin 27mm.
The presence of a vortex and low pressure itself is good enough to cause intense weather activity all along the coast and inland as well. Later the proximity of depression pumping strong moisture-laden southwesterly winds and climaxed by the stormy conditions may as well lead to flooding rains for the entire state. The combination of high-velocity winds and pouring rains have the damaging potential resulting in a disruption in communication and connectivity. Landslides, mudslides, inundation, and felling of trees remain a possibility.
The weather-sensitive terrain of Kerala is susceptible to inclement weather conditions. Peak intensity of adverse weather is expected between 14th May and 18th May. Sporadic and intermittent thunderstorms will continue even thereafter. Better weather conditions finding long breaks are expected only after 22nd May. Exercise caution to secure life and assets.