Severe Cyclone Nisarga is recurving and also speeding up. The storm is located about 200km northeast of Goa and 175km southwest of Mumbai. Moving with an average speed of 14kmh, the landfall is expected on 03rd June in the afternoon(1-3 pm). Looks like the storm is heading for Alibag with a margin of 50km on either side. Mumbai and all its suburbs namely: Thane, Kalyan, Navi Mumbai, Panvel, Virar, and the complete stretch from Dahanu to Raigad including Palghar and Alibag need to go on Red Alert for the next 24hr.
The cyclonic storms have winds of the order of 62-88 kmph and in severe cyclonic storms, the range is 89-117kmh. Cyclone Nisarga seems to be on the borderline during its peak on the 03rd morning. The proximity of terrain start causing entrainment and therefore a slight weakening of storm before the landfall. At the time of landfall, the sea tide adds to the storm surge to raise the magnitude by 5-10 feet or even more. This can result in the backflow of water resulting in excessive inundation and deep flooding, especially the low lying areas.
The continuous heavy downpour commencing early morning on 3rd and lasting for about six hours or more, coupled with the high-velocity winds will carry damaging potential. Disruption of rail, road and air operations and snapping of communication is very likely throwing life out of gear. The collapse of weak structures and uprooting of trees will obstruct the disaster team operations. Evacuations from the vulnerable areas are advisable with necessary stores and material lasting at least 48 hours. Two front war, COVID and Cyclone, is going to be a tough task. Exercise the utmost caution and stay safe.