Deciphering the Warm Winter code over North India

December 4, 2016 4:03 PM |

Deciphering the Warm Winter code over North India

Just like last year, the winter this year also seems to have started on a warmer note. Till now in 2016 the winter chill has not been felt till now in northern parts of the country. However temperatures of Vidarbha, Marathwada, parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and South Madhya Pradesh remained below normal by 4-6°C for many days in the month of November.

But as the normal temperatures of these places are also not very low, therefore despite the below normal minimum temperatures, severe winter weather were not felt over these areas.

Reason for mild winters over Northern plains can be attributed to successive Western Disturbances which were feeble in nature. These weather systems were not able to give significant rain and snow over hilly region of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. But they continuously obstructed the northerly and northwesterly flow of winds which led to higher minimum temperatures.

For winters to set in true sense, moderate to heavy snowfall should fall over West Himalayas which is possible only when an active western disturbance is seen.

Sometimes a strong western disturbance induces a cyclonic circulation over northwestern plains of Rajasthan and sometimes over Haryana. Due to this winter rains occurs over the region. These winter rains are also helpful in lowering the minimum temperature.

As of now we expect an active western disturbance to approach by December 10; simultaneously the low pressure system which is developing over southeast Bay of Bengal will also reach Odisha coast gradually intensifying. Due to this weather system, moisture will increase over Indo-Gangetic plains.

The combination of western disturbance and the influence of this weather system of Bay, we expect scattered rains over Indo-Gangetic plains and good snowfall over Western Himalayas, from December 10 to December 12.

After this we expect steep fall in both minimum and maximum temperature and winters is most likely to set in. So the fall in minimum temperatures may be delayed but December hold pretty cold weather for the northern plains.

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