Northeast Monsoon will enter an active phase and South Peninsula is heading for 'deluge' during next week. Prior to that, Bay Islands bear the risk of heavy rains, anytime soon and later, the rainfall belt travelling across the South Bay of Bengal (BoB) to Sri Lanka and Coastal Tamil Nadu. Stormy weather conditions are likely over Southwest BoB, Sri Lanka and South Coastal Tamil Nadu, early next week.
A cyclonic circulation is developing in the backyard of Indian waters, over the Gulf of Thailand and Malacca Strait. This weather feature is likely to move over South Andaman Sea on 03rd Dec. Reorganising and intensifying further, circulation will shift westward over Southeast BoB on 04th Dec. Also, a low-pressure area is expected to form over the region, the same day by late evening/night.
Under the influence of favourable sea conditions, low pressure area will grow further to become a depression, on 05th Dec and get positioned over South Central and adjoining Southwest BoB. Environmental conditions support further strengthening, possibly to a deep depression on 06th Dec, over Southwest BoB, off North Sri Lanka and South Coastal Tamil Nadu. There is 20% probability of storm formation on the same day over same area.
Proximity of landmass always inhibit growth of sea born weather disturbances and the case in point may not be any different.
Developments and changes, if any, need to be observed over the next 3days. Precision forecast will have to wait, at least for next 48hr. Irrespective of final grade of the weather system, South Peninsula is heading for heavy to very heavy rains during next week. Coastline of Tamil Nadu, its interior parts and contiguous region of Kerala will have a risk of flooding rains. Hazardous weather conditions may last for over 24hr for these two states.