Cyclonic circulation forms in Bay of Bengal, to induce depression by weekend

April 23, 2019 7:20 AM |

Depression in Bay of Bengal

Updated on April 23, 2019 5:30 PM:  Cyclonic circulation forms in Bay of Bengal, to induce depression by weekend

As predicted by Skymet Weather, a cyclonic circulation has finally come into existence. The system is presently marked over extreme Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean.

According to weathermen, the system would be tracking northwestwards into favourable weather conditions. The cyclonic circulation is likely to get more marked in the next 24 hours and induce a low pressure area by April 25. By then, the system would have moved further northwest but remaining over southeast and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal and nearby areas of Indian Ocean.

By April 26, we can expect a depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Ocean. According to weathermen, atmospheric conditions would be further enhancing the strength of the depression. This may turn into a tropical storm in the subsequent three days, but we need to wait and watch for its intensity and track.

Depression likely in Bay of Bengal by weekend, may intensify into first cyclone of the season

Pre-Monsoon season is also the onset season for cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Development of tropical storms are rare in March and picks up pace generally by the second half of April. While the month of May witnesses more of such storms in comparison to April. There are times, when these cyclonic storms even spreads to June on the account of weak Monsoon or delayed one.

Coming to the present season, we have not see any tropical storm in any of the Indian seas, so far. However, weather models are showing some turbulence in the ocean waters. The indications show that a Cyclonic Circulation is likely to develop around April 23.

At present, the system is at nascent stage and is located on the extreme southeast of Bay of Bengal, in the equatorial region of the Indian Ocean.

As per the experts, it is expected to become more organised on April 24. By April 25, it would gain more strength and possibly turn into a Low-pressure area. Slowly and steadily, this system would intensify further and shift a little northwestward. This would be the first system during this season.

Chances of this system turning into a depression are bright on April 26 but it would remain far low in the latitude. It might show signs of re-curvature when it becomes a Deep Depression but keeping far distance from our coastline. Thus, the coastline of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu would be safe. Moving forward, it would reach central Bay of Bengal by April 28 and possibility of it becoming a feeble cyclonic storm cannot be ruled out by then.

On April 29 and 30, it will move over the central and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal. While on May 1, it would be close to the proximity of Bangladesh and Myanmar near the Arakan coast. The system would be moving in favourable weather conditions as Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) would be around 29°C that are conducive for the formation of cyclonic storms.

Despite of all these favourable factors, this storm, the very first one of this season doesn't seem intense in nature. When the Monsoon current is strong/aggressive/active, it tends to suppress the cyclonic storm.

In the month of April, all these storms normally come up in extreme southeastern parts of Bay of Bengal that is in the proximity of equatorial Indian Ocean. Between zero and five degrees on either side of the equator, the cyclonic storms generally don’t form and even if they form, they tend to fizzle out soon.

In the month of April, these storms have the tendency to move northwest and re-curve well short of our coast and then again re-curve and head to Arakan Coast near Myanmar and Bangladesh. It is very rare that our coast directly gets hit by such a cyclonic storm.

This cyclonic circulation is likely to come up in the active zone of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The presence of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is also favouring this storm. It has a role to play in intensifying the disturbances that come up in the oceans anywhere across the globe.

Image Credit: Indian Express

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