Devolving El Nino and evolving La Nina pave way for good Monsoon in India

May 27, 2016 6:37 AM |

La-NinaThe weekly Niño indexes are already indicating that El- Niño has reached threshold neutral. On May 23, the Niño 3.4 that is associated with the Southwest Monsoon declined to 0.2°C, which is a neutral value.

This is for the first time since January 2015 that Niño 3.4 values have fallen so much.

This figure has created a stir across the world, forcing international weather agencies to watch the demise of El- Niño even more closely now. The weather phenomenon that has been prevailing since last 14 months has severely impacted the weather across the world, particularly Indian Southwest Monsoon that resulted in 14% deficit in 2015.

However, formal demise of El- Niño can only be declared when the overlapping 3-month season average (Oceanic Niño Index) will settle below 0.5°C.

The latest Oceanic Niño Index for the months of February, March and April is still settling at a fairly high value of 1.6°C. “Looking at the present scenario, it seems that secession of El-Nino may take some more time though the indexes are declining continuously,” said AVM GP Sharma, President- Meteorology, Skymet Weather.

Skymet Weather predicts that final news of El- Niño being over will only come after the onset of Southwest Monsoon over the Indian mainland, sometime in June or July.

Read: What is El-Nino and what are its affect?

La Nina watch

El- Niño is usually followed by La-Niña, however, it is not essential every time. But this time weather conditions are indicating towards the arrival of the same.

Weathermen across the world have already issued La- Niña watch, as the temperatures over Pacific waters have been consistently showing a decreasing trend.

However, we do not foresee La Niña setting in before October. For the declaring the onset of La Niña, the Oceanic Niño Index needs to fulfill the criteria of settling below -0.5°C for five consecutive months.

Unlike El- Niño, La Niña is associated with good rainfall over the Indian region. Statistics suggests that La- Niña years have mostly resulted in above average rainfall.

Read: What is La-Nina?

Monsoon 2016 in India

We are at a stage where El- Niño is devolving, while La- Niña is evolving. Both the weather patterns will have their respective impact on the upcoming Southwest Monsoon.

On one hand, fading El- Niño will make way for neutral weather conditions after the onset of the Monsoon 2016. While on the other hand, an evolving La- Niña also has the great potential to affect the Monsoon in terms of good rainfall.

And as the weather models indicate, India is all set to witness above normal rainfall to the tune of 109% of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.

Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to 



For accurate weather forecast and updates, download Skymet Weather (Android App | iOS App) App.

Weather Forecast

Other Latest Stories

Weather on Twitter
RT @SkymetHindi: #JammuKashmir पर एक पश्चिमी विक्षोभ बना हुआ है और उत्तरी #Rajasthan पर इसका प्रेरित चक्रवाती प्रवाह देखा जाता है।  #weathe
Friday, November 15 23:36Reply
RT @JATINSKYMET: On this auspicious day of #GuruNanakJayanti we should all work towards making #DelhiAirQuality better. We are going throu…
Friday, November 15 23:36Reply
RT @SkymetAQI: Do you really think that the odd-even policy is effective and should be extended. Participate. #DelhiNCRPollution #DelhiAi
Friday, November 15 23:35Reply
RT @SkymetAQI: Track #AirQuality and #AirPollution of your location, download SKYMET AQI app from Play store NOW:…
Friday, November 15 21:19Reply
#Hindi: 16 नवंबर का मौसम पूर्वानुमान: बद्रीनाथ और केदारनाथ में बर्फवारी, दिल्ली प्रदूषण बेहद खराब श्रेणी में
Friday, November 15 20:00Reply
RT @SkymetAQI: Today, the city become the most polluted city in the world with the air quality index (AQI) of 527. #DelhiPollution #DelhiA
Friday, November 15 19:47Reply
RT @SkymetAQI: The air quality of #Delhi had been in the hazardous range for nine days, which is also the longest hazardous air quality spe…
Friday, November 15 19:47Reply
RT @SkymetAQI: To top it all, six out of the top 10 highest polluted cities are in India. #DelhiPollution #DelhiAirEmergency #Delhi #delhi
Friday, November 15 19:47Reply
RT @SkymetAQI: As per the #AQI rankings, after #Delhi at 527 came #Lahore at 234, which means that #DelhiAirPollution levels are more than…
Friday, November 15 19:47Reply
RT @SkymetAQI: As per the #AQI rankings, after Delhi and Lahore, third came #Tashkent at 185, fourth being #Karachi at 180, and fifth is #K
Friday, November 15 19:47Reply

latest news

Skymet weather

Download the Skymet App

Our app is available for download so give it a try