Month of September has not seen any good rains so far, barring two days which somehow managed to record some rains. As a result, countrywide cumulative deficiency has been on rise. Particularly, the deficiency is settling around 50% for the last four consecutive days.
With this, the cumulative countrywide deficiency which remained stagnant at 7%, further increased and now stands at 8%. In fact, we do not see situation getting any better in the coming days.
As per the meteorologists at Skymet Weather, rains would further reduce in the coming days, which would most likely lead to increase in the rainfall deficiency.
“No significant change is expected in the prevailing weather conditions. Barring some pockets of East and Northeast India, most parts of the country would see scanty rains only during the next few days. We are afraid that this may push the countrywide deficiency to 10%,” said AVM G P Sharma, President-Meteorology, Skymet Weather.
Monsoon rains are primarily governed by Monsoon trough and Monsoon systems like low pressure area and depression. At present, none of these features can be seen.
The axis of Monsoon trough is running north of its position across the foothills of Himalayas. Thus, taking away the rain activity from the Central and Northwest India.
At present, a north-south trough is marked from Karnataka to Comorin region. Besides this, two cyclonic circulations can be seen, one over Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast and the other over Tamil Nadu. As per weathermen, we do not see these small-scale features whenever Monsoon is active.
Weather models are also not suggesting formation of any significant weather system that could revive Monsoon or pull down the trough line at least for next one week. In the coming week, rainfall would be below average wherein Central, West and South India would see least rainfall activity.
The only saving point is the that we are reaching the fag end of Monsoon season, with which daily normal average rainfall would also dip.
Looking at this, Monsoon 2018 is going to end up with below normal rainfall. However, we are afraid that with dwindling Monsoon and no recovery in sight, we might even see cumulative deficiency surpassing 10%, which is borderline of below normal and drought. But we need to wait and watch for the same.
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com