El Nino, IOD and MJO join hands to revive Northeast Monsoon, to arrest fall in rainfall surplus

November 20, 2019 5:27 PM |

Monsoon Rains in India

After giving exceptional performance during the month of October, the onset month of Northeast Monsoon, rains have disappointed in November. The ongoing month is usually the top performer of the season in terms of rains, whose main beneficiary is Peninsular India.

October ended with whopping surplus rains to the tune of 54% for South Peninsula. With poor performance of rains, November consumed around 50% of its surplus that as on November 19 stands at 22% for the region.

However, we can now expect some revival in the Northeast Monsoon. And, this can be attributed to the oceanic parameters coming in consensus. El Niño, IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) and MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) are the three main oceanic parameters that given the rainfall over the Indian region, be it in the Southwest Monsoon or Northeast Monsoon.

El Niño: This deadly phenomenon is invariably linked with good rains during the Northeast Monsoon. Although not a rule, but statistics indicate the same. El Niño might have collapsed but weather models are once again indicating towards rise in its probability in the coming days. Present values indicate that most of the Pacific Ocean is warm with values above threshold, barring Nino 1+2 that is closer to the coast. However, it is most likely to remain neutral.

El Nino Index

IOD: The IOD, which is linked with good rainfall over the Indian region, continues to be strong as well as positive. The latest value for IOD is 1.7 °C, which way too above the threshold value of 0.4 °C. In fact, majority of weather models are indicating towards the positive IOD index value in the coming months as well.

IOD

MJO: This transient feature is also likely to visit Indian Ocean very soon. Thus, it is likely to further enhance the rainfall over South Peninsular India in the coming days.

Image Credits – India.com ed 

Any information taken from here should be credited to Skymet Weather






For accurate weather forecast and updates, download Skymet Weather (Android App | iOS App) App.

Weather Forecast

Other Latest Stories




Weather on Twitter
As the winds are light in nature, the haziness will be a sight during the daytime as well. Thus, pollution levels w… t.co/YsgmeDnp70
Saturday, December 07 12:00Reply
Today morning, most parts of the northwestern plains witnessed moderate #fog with dense at isolated pockets. Early… t.co/RvDT2FgywD
Saturday, December 07 12:00Reply
As of today, Sikar in #Rajasthan is the coldest city in the plains of India, with its night temperatures settling a… t.co/xeydhPvhdC
Saturday, December 07 11:17Reply
We expect scattered on and off light #rains to continue over #Chennai and coastal areas of #TamilNadu. t.co/c3YoM6bBtG
Saturday, December 07 10:43Reply
During the last 24 hours, light #rains with one or two moderate spells occurred over #TamilNadu. The Nugambakkam ob… t.co/NWvg4KOFnh
Saturday, December 07 10:43Reply
RT @Aparna: do not plan early morning or late night travel from and to Delhi peeps t.co/2DhBabjk2s
Saturday, December 07 09:39Reply
RT @Mpalawat: First dense #Fog over #Palam #Delhi. Today at 07:00 hours #visibility dropped to 100 meters over Palam. Now it's improving. R…
Saturday, December 07 09:39Reply
This fog has a close relation to #DelhiPollution which is increasing considerably since last many days. Today the o… t.co/yjbHAKqNeo
Saturday, December 07 09:38Reply
The traffic on highways was disrupted badly. Now, however, visibility is improving considerably with the rising su… t.co/6m7zDAw4PP
Saturday, December 07 09:37Reply
#Delhi witnessed its season’s first dense #fog today. At 07:00 hours in the morning, the visibility dropped to 100… t.co/20Wf8BoCPy
Saturday, December 07 09:37Reply

latest news

Skymet weather

Download the Skymet App

Our app is available for download so give it a try