Second low pressure area of July and 3rd of this monsoon season is likely to form over Bay of Bengal(BoB) anytime soon. This will carry the thrust of monsoon further in to last week of July. The seasonal rainfall deficiency, which has been arrested due to active monsoon conditions over north and central India, will be curtailed further to about 5% or less by the month end.
Light and variable winds over North BoB are indicative of likely formation of low pressure area over the same region. As a precursor, a cyclonic circulation is expected to form over Head BoB tomorrow and consolidate further in the subsequent 24-48hr. Under the influence of this circulation, a low pressure area will form over North BoB on 22nd July. This weather system is likely to meander for the next 3days over Northwest BoB and adjoining coastal parts of West Bengal and Odisha. With prolonged stay close the sea, the system may intensify further to a depression on 26thJuly or later. The low pressure is precariously patrolling the eastern states of West Bengal, Odisha , Bihar and Jharkhand between 22ndJuly and 27thJuly. Thereafter,the 1st potential monsoon depression of the season will move northwest along the seasonal trough and spread the monsoon current over large parts of East, Center and North India.
Monsoon trough and low pressure area will act in tandem to result active monsoon conditions over West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and East Rajasthan. The peripherals of the system will drag rains to Maharashtra and Telangana too, during this period. The duo of monsoon trough and low pressure will also be joined by a western disturbance 26thJuly onward to stretch the rain belt to Punjab and Haryana for the remaining days of July.
Overall, an active and prolonged wet spell is waiting in the wings to drench most parts of the country, outside Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema. The seasonal rainfall deficiency which has climbed to 8% is expected to plunge and dive deep between 20th and 31St July. Rain deluge over some parts like Konkan(including Mumbai) and Coastal Karnataka during the mid week may impact normal life due to disruption of communication and connectivity. Eastern states of West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh may get heavy downpour to result localized flooding and inundation of low lying areas. The national capital can expect another drencher to end the week on a swampy note.