A low-pressure area is expected to form over the Northwest Bay of Bengal and steer the monsoon rains over the eastern and central parts of the country. As a precursor to the ‘low’, a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal on 12th Aug which will consolidate to turn in to a low-pressure area on 13th Aug over the same region. The weather system will remain in the proximity of coastal areas of West Bengal and Odisha till 14th Aug and shift over land the next day.
The monsoon lows are forming in quick succession over the Bay of Bengal and sustaining the activity. The monsoon continues to walk a tight rope trying to catch up with the normal rainfall. It is maintaining a zero-zero status, with the actual figure having a slender deficit of just 2mm from the normal. This weather system will move west-northwest across Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. The peripherals of the system will bring rains over Maharashtra and Gujarat over Central India and scattered showers for Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi region between 15th and 17th Aug.
Monsoon rains seem to be shying away this season from the northern plains. The largest deficit is over East Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh of 29% and 32% respectively. Nearly 2/3rd of the season is getting over. The withdrawal of monsoon commences first from these parts and therefore any major shortfall becomes difficult to retrieve. The current spell is promising to address and mitigate the concerns. West Uttar Pradesh could be the main beneficiary along with East Rajasthan. The drought-stricken parts of North Gujarat like Deesa, Idar, Mehsana, Palanpur, Patan, Basankantha, and Sabarkantha can expect some decent showers so critical for saving the crops in the region. These rains will also help to raise the water reservoir levels as a back up to the scanty rains.