As anticipated, a low pressure area has formed over the Northwest Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. The weather system is supported by a cyclonic circulation extending up to mid-tropospheric levels as a mark of its strength. The monsoon system, third in quick succession, will be consolidating over the same region for the next 24 hours before the swathing coast and eastern parts of the country.
Courtesy last system, the southwest monsoon looking depleted bounced back to recover from seasonal deficit of 2% to a marginal surplus of 1%. The eastern and the central parts, right from Odisha to Gujarat are going to benefit and the forlorn pockets facing shortfall will recover sufficiently from the scare of spoilers. The resounding potential of the system will even extend wings to drench some southern and northern parts also.
After compounding strength on 14th August, the low pressure will move largely inland and only partly remain over the Bay of Bengal. On 15th and 16th August, the low pressure will spread its arms to cover West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh. Parts of Maharashtra and Telangana falling south of its track and Uttar Pradesh on to the north may also experience decent moderate showers on these days. On the 17th August, the system will reach West Madhya Pradesh, North Madhya Maharashtra, Southwest Rajasthan, and North Gujarat. All these regions can expect moderate rains which could be heavy at places (including Mumbai). On the 18th August, this will merge with a pre-existing circulation over Southwest Rajasthan and cause heavy rains, particularly over Kutch and adjacent area.
Monsoon surge will be bubbling with renewed energy to dump above normal rainfall on daily basis and raise the level of surplus. There is a possibility of some flooding rains during this period (13th- 18th August) along the track of this system. Also, another low pressure is likely to form over Bay of Bengal around 18th August, which could be stronger than its predecessor.