Good prospects for Post Monsoon after surplus Southwest Monsoon

October 17, 2019 3:37 PM |


Monsoon vs Post Monsoon

Southwest Monsoon has come to an end and now we have entered into the Post Monsoon season. Is there a link between both these seasons? We at Skymet have analyzed some data between 1950 and 2019, to find any correlation between Monsoon and Post Monsoon performance. The data for whenever Southwest Monsoon have been above normal or excess, has been taken.

For the post Monsoon season, the normal range of rains is +/-19 percent unlike the +/-4 percent in the Monsoon season.

Monsoon vs Post Monsoon season

Out of these 17 years, seven occasions have seen below the average rains while rest of Post Monsoon season has performed well wherein there have been three years namely 1970, 1988, 2007 wherein rainfall has been even below -19 percent. Meanwhile, there have been nine years, which have witnessed above normal rains.

After analyzing the table, it is quite evident that the variations in Post Monsoon season happen to be quite large. For instance, last three years have been below the average being 44 percent deficient in 2018, -14 percent in 2017 which was -65 percent in 2016.

Meanwhile, in the year 1956, the Post Monsoon season was 63 percent surplus. Thus, a large excess or large deficiency is seen during the Post Monsoon period, which is normally not seen in Monsoon season.

Two El Nino years, including 1953 and 1958 have also been taken into consideration when Monsoon has been surplus, which are exception years. El Nino is linked positively with Post Monsoon season.

Talking about this year, October has been normal so far. As of yesterday, the country is witnessing 5 percent deficiency. At the moment, there is a mixed performance, with rains being slightly less for Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. However, prospects are good in the second fortnight of the Northeast Monsoon.

Moreover, Northeast Monsoon has already set in yesterday, and activity is already on and is likely to continue. Also, due to the presence of systems on either side of the coastline, the activity is expected to continue. Thus, month of October will perform well enough.

Image Credit: wikipedia

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