North India is more conversant with hailstorms during the winter months (Dec-Feb). Western disturbance extending deep in the atmosphere finds upper air support, an essential to witness hailstorm, both in the plains and hills.
The state of Odisha mostly remains safe from such an activity in the peak winter months of December and January. Change in the wind features modify the weather pattern from 2nd half of February and more significantly with effect from March, for the easternmost central region of the country.
Seasonal anticyclone over Rajasthan and neighborhood is nearly a permanent feature during winter season. Oscillation of this feature under the influence of western disturbance controls the weather activity over the northern plains.
Changes in association with pre monsoon season are conceived rather early over state of Odisha and adjoining region. Visible changes get appreciation from 2nd half of February, more so for the coastal parts of the state.
Seasonal anticyclone of North India find gradual eastward shift and more frequently gets positioned over head Bay of Bengal. Increasing heat over the state during fag end of February accentuates the weather activity, triggering hailstorm over the interiors and coastal parts of the state.
Anticyclone fans moist winds along and off the coast and the enhanced heat content support development of large thunderstorm cells. State of Odisha was the 1st to register mercury levels of 40°C during Feb 2021. Capital city Bhubaneshwar scaled temperature in excess of 40°C for 3 consecutive days between 26th and 28thFebruary.
Congruent situation is shaping up shortly for inclement weather conditions over Odisha. Anticyclone in the lower layers of the atmosphere is shifting over north and northwest Bay of Bengal on 19thFeb. This feature holds position with minor oscillations for the subsequent 4-5days. Convergence zone between the humid winds from Bay of Bengal and drier airmass from the land will develop more significantly from 20thFeb onward.
Surface temperature are already hovering between 31-32°C and may rise further. Thunderstorm activity is expected to pick up for coastal stations of North Odisha and adjoining inland stations, between 20th and 24thFebruary. Isolated hailstorm may also accompany this episode and even extend over parts of West Bengal and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh. State capital Bhubaneshwar, Cuttack, Baripada, Balasore, Puri and Gopalpur are more vulnerable for intense convective activity during this period. Another favorable situation for similar activity may follow closely this episode , possibly with large spread and intensity.