Post Monsoon season that spans from October to December is also considered as a cyclone season for the country. Chances of tropical cyclones are more in October and November, while chances are relatively less in December.
2014 and 2015 did not see any cyclonic storm in any of the India Seas in December. However thereafter, both in 2016 and 2017, we saw cyclone developing in December and that too some strong systems. 2018 also seems to follow the similar lines and if the system forms it would be hat trick, this year.
Coming back to 2016, Cyclone Wardha had made appearance on December 6 and went on till December 18. The system had east-west track and had intensified into a severe cyclonic storm. Wardha had made landfall south of Chennai
In 2017, we saw Cyclone Ockhi that was the most intense cyclonic storm in Arabian Sea since 2015. It was equivalent to Category 3 storm. The system had originated on November 21 in Andaman Sea and travelled all the way to Arabian Sea, while closely skirting the southern coast of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Ockhi finally dissipated near Gujarat coast on December 6. All this while, the system did not made any landfall.
The one thing common between both the system is that they long sea travels, spending almost two weeks.
Coming to 2018, a depression is brewing in south-central Bay of Bengal. So far, both the movement and intensification of the system have been slow. But intensity and speed would pick up the pace now.
According to weathermen at Skymet Weather, we expect system to induce a deep depression by late Thursday and chances are bright for its further intensification into a tropical storm by late Friday. Not only this, weather models are indicating that it might turn into severe cyclonic storm as well.
The probable storm is most likely to track towards North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh coasts, with more chances on the latter one. Initially, the weather system had kept weathermen guessing both about its track and intensity.
If formed, it would be named as ‘Phethai’ which would be seventh in row for this year. Unlike Wardha and Ockhi, it might not have a prolonged sea travel. Also, the system would weaken as soon as it makes the landfall, contrary to above mentioned storms that had travelled across Southern Peninsular and re-emerged in Arabia Sea.
Image Credit: Tribune
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com