Kerala has been receiving good rains since the beginning of October. In the past 24 hours, from 8.30 am on Monday fairly widespread moderate rains with few light spells were seen in the state. For instance, Thrissur has recorded 35 mm of rain, while Punalur and Kozhikode have witnessed 24 mm and 18 mm of rain, respectively.
As of October 21, Kerala was rain surplus by 40%. During the next two to three days the rain surplus will increase further due to the forecast of good rain. The Northeast Monsoon is active over the southern peninsula region from the past few days including Kerala.
According to our meteorologists, moderate rain with one or two heavy spells may continue to be observed in Kerala for the next few days. Thereafter the intensity of rain will decrease but rains will still continue. These rains will be due to the activation of the Monsoon surge over the west coast due to the formation of a Low-Pressure Area over the North Tamil Nadu coast and Cyclonic Circulation over the Comorin area.
As this Low-Pressure Area will move northward along the east coast, rainfall activities will start reducing.
The strong IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), as well as the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation), are also enhancing the Northeast Monsoon rains over the southern peninsular region. MJO at present is passing through the Indian ocean. Hence its impact will be seen until the end of October.
Strong IOD and MJO can be the reason for the formation of successive Low-pressure Areas over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
Kerala witnessed incessant rainfall from Monday morning, a day of by-polls for five assembly constituencies across the state. People found it difficult to reach polling booths, forcing the voter turnout to dip to a comparative low of 64.99%
According to the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority red alert has been issued in Thiruvananthapuram, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Idukki, Thrissur and Palakkad on Monday and the alert for four districts on Tuesday has now been cancelled. It is very likely that Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Kannur, Alappuzha are likely to witness good showers for the next two to three days. Fishermen have been advised not to venture out in the sea. At present, there is an orange-level alert for Idukki district.
Due to the rail tracks being waterlogged in Ernakulam Southern Railways cancelled Monday's Ernakulam-KSR Bengaluru Express and Kannur-Ernakulam Intercity express and Bengaluru-Ernakulam express for Tuesday.
Image Credits – Indian Express Malayalam
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