Southwest Monsoon 2018 has begun its journey of withdrawal from West Rajasthan, setting in pace for post-Monsoon cyclone season in the country.
Sea surface temperatures (SST), both in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, have been on rise for last many days. According to Skymet Weather, whenever the sun is over the equator, the heat potential of the ocean rises phenomenally. This eventually leads to increase in SSTs, which is highly conducive for formation of a cyclonic storms.
Besides this, ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) has now also started shifting southwards towards the coast. This is the main generator behind the disturbances in the open waters. As per weathermen, Indian seas are the deadliest basins for the formation of severe cyclonic storms during this time of the year.
These storms are complex in nature in terms of rapid intensification, change in track and its movement. However, unlike the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans that usually follow similar tracks, tropical storms are quite notorious. Early prediction for these storms is quite a challenging task and it is difficult to forecast and monitor them.
Now as we are stepping in the cyclone season, weather models are indicating towards early signs for some disturbances in Southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Indian Ocean. As per weathermen, it would possibly emerge as a cyclonic circulation after a week or so. But whether this would turn into a cyclonic storm or not, it must be watched closely for the next 48 hours.
If it forms into one, we can expect some torrential rains along the West Coast, beginning from Kerala and mind head towards Gujarat. However, as we said, we need to track it for some more time.
These cyclonic storms form both in the Pre-Monsoon season, which is during April and May, as well as the Post Southwest Monsoon season, i.e. between October and December. The Southwest Monsoon is not the favored period for the formation of cyclonic storms.
However, there are no official bounds as such as there have been a few occasions when storms have formed during Monsoon season as well. Latest example is Cyclone Daye that had formed in Bay of Bengal. Not only this, this cyclonic storm even drove the Monsoon currents to the entire country.
Talking about frequency of the storms, the Bay of Bengal is more active as compared to the Arabian Sea. However, the severity of the storms is equal. The Arabian Sea has a track record of storms fizzling out while they are in the extreme northern parts but the ones which recurve pose threat to the coastline of Gujarat and Maharashtra.
Image Credit: Telegraph
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com