Light to moderate rain with few heavy spells are going on over many parts of south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and parts of Kerala since last few days. Cyclonic circulation is persisting over Comorin area and a trough is extending from this cyclonic circulation to southeast Arabian Sea across Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
We do not expect heavy to very heavy downpour over Kerala this time which may lead to flooding and water logging. Rains are expected to continue in moderate-intensity and will not be continuous.
The cyclonic circulation and the trough will persist over South Peninsula for next 2 to 3 days and rains will continue. North easterly humid winds form Bay of Bengal are expected to set in and become more prominent in coming days, most probably by October 26th or 27. Setting up of north easterly winds and increased rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu will mark commencement of Northeast monsoon.
The onset of Northeast monsoon will be a moderate affair. We do not expect sudden increase in rain intensity over South Peninsula during the onset.