Monsoon 2018 started on an excellent note, with country recording surplus rainfall during the first half of June. As on June 16, the countrywide cumulative rainfall was excess by 19%.
However, weather conditions changed thereafter. As the Monsoon surge got weak, the rain surplus also started decreasing. As on June 19, the countrywide cumulative rainfall surplus dropped to 16% and even further thereon. In fact, within a span of five-six days, the country consumed all its surplus rains and the countrywide cumulative rainfall is now deficit to the tune 9% as on June 21.
Ever since the Monsoon has gone week, good rains have only been confined to West Coast and Northeast India. In fact, rains across Northeast India have now also reduced.
According to Skymet Weather, there were several reasons which slowed down the pace of Southwest Monsoon 2018. Let us have a look at the following:
- Depression moving northeastwards: The depression over Bay of Bengal that had increased rains initially along the East Coast that finally travelled in northeast direction towards Myanmar across Bangladesh. Had the system moved in westwards direction towards the coast, it would have contributed more in countrywide rainfall.
- Absence of Monsoon system: After the passage of the above mentioned depression, no other significant weather system had formed on either side of the Indian coast in the last 10 days.
- Week equatorial flow: The equatorial flow that decides the strength of Monsoon surge has been weak. As per weathermen, weaker the flow is, less would be the rain.
- Unfavourable Oceanic Index: Both the major influencers of Monsoon – Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have not been favourable for the good Monsoon rains. After its last visit in May, MJO is yet to appear visit Indian Seas again. Although IOD is in neutral phase but it is on the negative side.
However, we need not worry anymore as Monsoon is showing promising signs for its revival. We would see Monsoon rains making appearance by June 24. Significant enhancement in rains and thundershowers would be seen June 26 onwards.
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com