A cyclonic circulation has been persisting over North Andaman Sea and East Central Bay of Bengal (BoB), for the last 48hr. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form anytime soon over Central BoB. This feature is already manifested as cloud cluster in the satellite imagery. Once over the warm sea surface, the low pressure will become more marked and move northwestward towards the coastline of South Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh.
Monsoon withdrawal has already commenced from the state of Odisha and also nearing Andhra Pradesh. With this situation, the low pressure will have opposing interaction and will not intensify much. Rainfall activity will be confined to coastal parts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh in the next 48hr.
The spread and intensity will increase later and fairly widespread rain and thundershowers are likely over Interior parts of Odisha, Chhattisgarh and North Andhra Pradesh. The weather activity will enhance further to reach Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttrakhand and Delhi between 16th-18thOctober.
Southwest monsoon has barely withdrawn from north and central India. This wet spell over these parts will be the quickest and with shortest possible break. Month of October invariably remains dry over North India after the retreat of monsoon.
This deviation from the norm may also bring rapid change over of weather conditions, setting pace for early wintry touch over the plains of North India. There has already been an early bout of snow in the Kashmir region and coupled with these unseasonal showers, is bound to usher nip in the air rather early in the season.
There is likelihood of yet another low pressure area in the BoB, shortly after the current one moves away. However, the next low pressure may not travel that far, albeit be more powerful to drench east and northeast India. Between 14thand 20thOctober, will be an action pack, week long weather activity over different parts, possibly simultaneous on few occasions. Following this, will be the time to welcome Northeast Monsoon over South India.