Apr 14, 2017 2:30 PM
As predicted by Skymet Weather, the low pressure area in Southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining area has further strengthened into a well-marked low pressure area. Presently, the system is located around 815 km east-northeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Further, cloud configuration and atmospheric conditions are favourable for the system to induce a depression by Friday evening or night.
The system will continue to track in north-northwesterly direction towards Bangladesh or Myanmar coast. The system is likely to intensify into a formation of cyclone by tomorrow i.e. April 15. If it happens, it will be the first cyclone of the season that will be names as ‘Cyclone Mora’.
Updated on April 14, 2017; 12:30 PM: Low pressure area forms in Bay, depression in next 24 hours
The cyclonic circulation over Southeast Bay of Bengal has intensified into a low-pressure area. This system is expected to intensify into a well-marked low pressure area and subsequently into a depression in the next 24 to 36 hours.
The system will move in a north-northwest direction away from the East Coast of India towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. Though there is no immediate threat to Indian coast, cloud cover is expected to increase over coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and a few parts of Odisha. Isolated thunderstorm and thundershowers may occur over these areas during the next 24 to 48 hours.
As the system is a fast moving one, it may or may not intensify into a cyclone. The reason for this being the system will not remain in deep sea for a longer period. The system is however expected to intensify into a deep depression in the next 48 hours. The possibility of the system intensifying to a cyclone will only be clear after 24 to 48 hours.
April 13, 2017: The cyclonic circulation over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea continues to get more organised. According to Skymet Weather, with this pace, the system is likely to intensify into a low pressure area during the next 24 hours over the same area.
Mahesh Palawat, Chief Meteorologist, Skymet Weather said, “As the sea surface temperatures are warmer, situation is conducive for further strengthening. Therefore, it is most likely to develop into a well-marked low pressure area in another 24-48 hours”.
In wake of this, the cyclonic circulation is likely to give fairly widespread rain and thundershowers over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 2-3 days. Isolated spells of heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over few places.
Also Read: Heavy rain in Andaman to disrupt vacation plans for many
Though the system is too far to have any impact weather over Indian mainland but Coastal Tamil Nadu may see partly cloudy sky. However, chances of rains are very remote but isolated thundery activity cannot be ruled out.
As weather models are suggesting, the system would initially track north-northwestwards. There is high probability of formation of a depression by April 17. Thereafter, as it will continue to venture in deep sea, there is a possibility of this tropical system to intensify into a cyclone.
Also Read: Cyclonic circulation forms in Bay of Bengal, maiden cyclone of the season in offing
However, we should wait and watch its further development. Sometimes due to high vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures, the intensification process of the storm can be hampered. But it is too early to predict these probabilities.
Image credit: Tribune
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
