Looks like the month of July will end on a deficit note with light to moderate rains to follow for one week. Till date, Jammu and Kashmir is in the normal category with a deficiency of 15% (+/-19 considered normal) while Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are deficient by 35% each.
The weather activity is likely to be more prevalent over the foothills of all the three states. Moderate rains with increased activity is likely to be seen in Uttarakhand followed by Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir. Places like Kathua, Samba, Jammu, Nahan, Sirmaur, Una and Dehradun will be some of the places to observe rainfall activities.
Hence, we can say that Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are likely to see moderate rains with isolated heavy spells for the next three to four days. The weather activity in Jammu and Kashmir will be subdued.
The Monsoon current is generally weak over the northern hills of the country. In the Monsoon season, it rains the most in Uttarakhand followed by Himachal Pradesh and then Jammu and Kashmir. However, it reverses in winters. That means winter rains are more over Jammu and Kashmir followed by Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
The monsoon activities get accentuated only when there is a conjunction of a weather system with a Western Disturbance. As the Monsoon Trough shifts to its normal northward position, activities in the hills begin. In the absence of any of the two scenarios, rainfall becomes subdued, especially over Jammu and Kashmir.
Importantly all the three states don’t perform well simultaneously. Invariably all the three states going surplus and deficit is generally not the scenario.
An exception was seen in 2009 when drought was declared pan India. In the same year Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand were rain deficient by 34%, 34%, and 27%, respectively.
While the best year has been 2010 when all these three states performed positively and pan India Monsoon rains were also normal by two percent.
Like in the year 2007, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh were rain deficient by 3% and 36%, respectively. While Uttarakhand was rain surplus by 28%.
Image Credit: India Today
Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com