The four months-long monsoon season ended with a thrilling performance of ‘Above Normal’ recording rainfall 109% of LPA (Long Period Average). The Monsoon 2020 season recorded 957.6mm rainfall against the normal of 880.6mm. This makes 2020 as the 2nd best monsoon since 1994, the best being 2019 which ended with 110% of LPA. The season also had the distinction of having normal to excess rainfall over 85% of the total area of the country and remained deficit over the rest mostly comprising of hilly states of north India, NMMT (Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura), and West Uttar Pradesh. Sikkim, Gujarat, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh were the first 4 rainiest states in that order registering excess rainfall of 60%, 58%, 46% and 44% respectively.
The month of August was the best performer and also saviour from a possible disaster. It measured 27% excess rain, the largest in the last four decades. The month compensated for the shallow performance of July which consumed the early gains of June and ended with a shortfall of 10%. Despite failed monsoon in one of the core monsoon month, the season-ending with a tall score of 109% is a feather in the cap of Monsoon 2020.
The monsoon had earlier made a sound start making timely knock on 01st June over mainland Kerala. Also it enjoyed a bonus time of 11 days towards extended stay over North India before commencing withdrawal, but still remained deficit over the region. The severely punished pocket was West Uttar Pradesh with the largest deficiency of 37%. Saurashtra & Kutch was the rainiest sub division with record rainfall of 126% of LPA.
Monsoon Circulation is a very complex phenomenon and every geographical event on planet earth has an impact on the monsoon’s behavior. Winter snow in Eurasia, Himalayan snow, volume of Arctic ice, temperature over the Pacific waters and multitude of many other parameters across the globe are the decisive factors for the performance of monsoon. It is rather difficult to take a judicious count of each of these factors and possibly few other which could still be unknown to the meteorologists. It is predominantly an oceanic phenomenon and sea is always considered more mysterious than land.
Despite sincere efforts of scientist across the globe ,the business of monsoon forecast continue to be a challenge. Like many other vagaries of weather, decoding of monsoon is going to an ongoing affair. The monsoon is capable of throwing up a surprise, anytime, anywhere. After all, it has a reputation to maintain.