Close on the heels of a well-marked low in the Bay of Bengal on 3rd August, a fresh low pressure is likely to form over Northeast Bay of Bengal. Unlike the previous system which entered the Bay of Bengal as the remnant of tropical storm ‘Sinlaku’, this will be an in-situ formation. A cyclonic circulation is forming over the region on 07th Aug and consolidating further over the north Bay of Bengal to become the second low pressure area in the first 10 days of August.
This low pressure is likely to take a little southerly track and cross South Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh coast, more likely on 09th August. A fresh wave of monsoon rains is going to run across the eastern and central parts of the country. These rains may travel right up to Gujarat around the middle of next week.
The month of July nearly ran dry for the basin as no such systems formed in the Bay of Bengal. But in August, even after this weather system vacates our area, there are signs of another one following. These monsoon systems are the lifeline to sustain monsoon activity. The regular appearance of these also keeps the ‘Break’ in monsoon in abeyance. The monsoon this season is still running a tight race to keep abreast of the normal performance. The seasonal rainfall is marginally short by 1% and recorded 492.9mm against the normal of 498.3mm. Early signs promise a good pace, especially for the areas where it matters the most.