The process of monsoon withdrawal has already commenced and it has vacated parts of West Rajasthan and Punjab. The weather conditions seem to be building up for speedy withdrawal from complete North India and are likely to be complete in the next 3-4 days from plains and hills across the region. In the wake of withdrawal: clear sky, hot and windy days, the slight nip in the air with drop-in night temperature and hazy mornings are expected over most parts.
The withdrawal of monsoon this year is quite different from the previous year. In 2019, the withdrawal had commenced on 09th October with a delay of more than one month (normal date, 01st September). Despite being most delayed, the process was complete by 15-16 October with the retreat from South Peninsula, the fastest on record. The delay was due to the presence of weather systems on both sides of coastline, in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS).
This year also there is a weather system in the form of a cyclonic circulation over Northeast BoB which emerged from the Gulf of Thailand. This is going to persist and become more marked in 48 hours and may turn in to a low-pressure area. The weather system will move inland across West Bengal and Odisha coast on 3rd October. However, the influence of the system will remain limited to Coastal Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and parts of Bihar and Jharkhand between 03rd and 06th October.
Also, there is a cyclonic circulation over Northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra coast which is going to shift slowly towards Oman Coast. This feature will cause light rains over parts of Gujarat till about 03rd October and become dry thereafter.
Accordingly, the monsoon withdrawal is likely around 10th October from Bihar & Jharkhand in the East and Gujarat in the West. The process of the retreat of monsoon is expected to be complete from India by 15th October.