Skymet weather

Monsoon 2021: ENSO favors good rains during the second half of season, IOD remains neutral

July 19, 2021 8:23 PM |

Southwest Monsoon 2021

ENSO neutral conditions continue to prevail across the entire stretch of the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST’s) are near average across most parts of the ocean. ENSO neutral is expected during the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) season between June and September. There are over 65% chances for the La Nina potentially emerging through September – November season and lasting through the 2021-22 winters.

Nino indices for the last 4 weeks mostly remained neutral. The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) based on SST’s departure from average in the Nino 3.4 region, is the principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. The current value of Nino 3.4, as on 12th July is 0.0 degrees Celsius.

Nino Indices

ENSO projections for the month of July depict a rising trend of the La Nina component and exceeds neutral towards the end of the monsoon season. This is a visible and significant change from the previous Nino plots. The pattern assures no threat of El Nino corrupting monsoon rains and rather the 2nd half of the season should perform better than the 1st two months of June and July. Pacific is likely to stay cool and therefore conducive for good ISMR.

ENSO

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continue to vary between 0 degrees and -0.5 degree Celsius. Its latest weekly value to 11th July was -0.46 degree as against the previous mark of -0.27 degree on 04th July. The IOD index has been below the -ve threshold for the last 6 weeks barring 04th July. Model indications do not suggest any significant drop hereafter but continue to remain marginally -ve.

IOD

The transitory index MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) remains favorable, albeit with low amplitude, by remaining in phase 3&4. It may not trigger monsoon activity after 22nd July but the other 2 factors will push the monsoon rains over most parts.

MJO

The most crucial out of these 3 parameters is El Nino/La Nina and is showing promising signs. Monsoon can ride well over its own dynamics and cool Pacific. La Nina does not seem to be disappointing and the 2nd half of the season is reassuring better rains.






For accurate weather forecast and updates, download Skymet Weather (Android App | iOS App) App.

Other Latest Stories







The advantage of staying at home on a rainy day is that you can get comfortable, turn on your mobile, and get to play at a bitcoin casino with a cup of tea. While that heavy rain is falling, you get to play your favorite bitcoin casino games without any worry in the world. The advantage of playing in a crypto casino is that you can log in anywhere at any time.

latest news

Skymet weather

Download the Skymet App

Our app is available for download so give it a try

×