As anticipated, a fresh low pressure area has formed over North Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal parts of Bangladesh and West Bengal. Earlier a cyclonic circulation persisted over same area for about 48 hours and under its influence, the 3rd low pressure area of July has formed over North Bay of Bengal. The 1st low pressure of the month formed on 11thJuly and the 2ndone had come up on 22nd July. Over all, this is the 4thlow pressure of Monsoon 2021 in the Indian seas and is statistically considered an average number half way through the season.
This low pressure area is likely to remain over North Bay and neighboring West Bengal and Bangladesh for the next 48 hours with a marginal shift toward land. During this period, it is expected to become more organized and possibly turn in to a well marked low pressure. On 29th July, the weather system is likely to move over parts of West Bengal, North Odisha and South Jharkhand and further on to Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
Unlike the previous systems, this low pressure is likely to take a customary track along the Indo-Gangetic plains and move along the monsoon trough. Looks like, this system will be slow moving and therefore spending nearly four to five days, between 28th July and 02ndAugust, travelling across plains of West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and East Rajasthan. Unlike its predecessors, Telangana, Maharashtra (including Konkan) and Gujarat will be spared from any intense weather activity.
Over next 48 hours, heavy rainfall is expected at few places over West Bengal, North Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar. Thereafter, heavy rainfall belt will shift to North Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. National capital Delhi may also end July on a rainy note with widespread moderate to heavy showers on 30th and 31st July.
The last of the hat trick low of July is also likely to wipe out the scary seasonal deficiency of 8%. Already, spike in the monsoon activity over last one week has reduced this margin to -1%. This marginal shortfall also is expected to be neutralized soon and there are fair chances for the season to register a surplus of 1%, at half way mark of Monsoon 2021.