Heavy rains appear to make a comeback for most parts of Gujarat and are likely to last till the weekend. Most parts of South Gujarat along the coast, covering Vapi, Navsari, Valsad, and Surat are expected to be lashed with heavy rains between 15th and 16th July.
The heavy rainfall belt is also going to extend to the rest of Gujarat and Saurashtra. Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Gandhinagar, and Anand are likely to receive moderate to heavy showers during these days. The driest locations of North Gujarat like Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Patan, Palanpur, Mehsana, Deesa, and Idar also stand a good chance to experience decent rains in this duration.
The deluged parts of Saurashtra due to the last monsoon depression will have another spell, albeit of lesser intensity. Bhavnagar, Mahuva, Veraval, Somnath, Diu, Amreli, Junagadh and Rajkot will receive few spells of intense rains during this time.
The state of Gujarat has a long coastline of 1600km spanning across Kutch, Saurashtra and South Gujarat. Accordingly, the weather conditions vary largely from coastline to the hinterland of the state.
Monsoon 2020 so far has a skewed distribution of rains over the state. While Saurashtra and Kutch have a large surplus of 111%, Gujarat division is deficient by a margin of 33%. In this division, 18 out of 21 districts are placed deficit ranging from 30-60%. Contrary to this, all 12 districts of Saurashtra and Kutch are surplus, the highest being Dwarka with an excess of 431%.
There is a cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea of the coast and this will shift to the Northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra. The upcoming rains will help to reduce the deficiency of the Gujarat division to some extent. The overall surplus of 31% for the complete state will possibly increase further. Also, the heavy rains may cause localized flooding and inundation of the low lying areas.