Mumbai received 3 digit rainfall in 24 hours for the 2nd consecutive day. The base observatory of Santacruz recorded 107mm rainfall ending 8.30 am. Mumbai had earlier measured 231mm the previous day and the city has clocked 300mm over the last 3 days. It is a resounding start to the monsoon and more rains are in store over the next few days.
Mumbai has recorded a total of 534.3mm rainfall in the last 10 days against the monthly normal of 493.1mm. Completing monthly normal so early has very few parallel in the recent past and everything is not yet over and done. Heavy to very heavy rains are likely between 11th and 15th June and 3-digit rainfall or more on daily basis is quite likely over Mumbai and suburbs. Mumbai, a city with a track record of drowning rains stands a chance this month to overtake its all-time June record of 1106.7mm established in 2015. Also, 4 digit monthly rainfall of 1029.8mm was achieved in 2012. With the active meteorological conditions hinting at vigorous monsoon rains, these records could go for a toss very soon.
The low-pressure area has developed afresh over the northwest Bay of Bengal and coastal parts. This feature will become more marked over the next 24 hours and will also move inland over Odisha and Chhattisgarh. Such situations accentuate the monsoon surge in the Arabian Sea and the moist strong westerly current strikes all along with the West Coast invigorating monsoon rains. Mumbai is very special to such situations and invariably gets impacted with flooding rains. Most numerical models are in unison predicting prolonged spells of heavy rains.
Astronomical high tide in the afternoon and a repeat in the wee hours with a storm surge of about 4 meters is likely between 11th and 15th June. This may possibly restrict the water flow into the sea and contrarily may push backflow. Waterlogging and inundation of coastal and low-lying areas of Mumbai and suburbs are quite likely. Intense weather activity with short breaks only is expected to commence in Mumbai and suburbs in the evening and go on for the next few days. This may restrict and disrupt rail, road, and air traffic along with communication and connectivity. Adequate precautions need to be in place to avert any mishappening and secure lives and assets.