Skymet weather

No cyclone in April, high probability in May over the Bay of Bengal

April 22, 2021 5:38 PM |

Cyclone Nivar

There is no likelihood of any cyclone in the Indian Seas during the month of April. Environmental features, ocean state, and the equatorial zone is expected to lie dormant without churning any cyclogenesis over the remaining days of this month. The attention now shifts to the peak pre-monsoon month of May hosting maximum storms threatening the Indian coastline and the neighboring states.

Cyclone season officially begins from March and prolongs till mid-June till the monsoon current sweeps across the Indian Seas. Chances and probability keep increasing from March to April and further to May. The potential and intensity also build up with a substantial rise in the heat factor.

Tropical storms are the strangest and strongest natural disaster having large endurance varying from a couple of days to over a week. They are also known for their truant behavior and notorious for destructive potential. Between 2000 and 2020, there were 3 years (2005, 2011, 2012) when no storm formed in the Indian Seas during the pre-monsoon season. Also, a maximum of 3 storms was witnessed in any one year and was generally equally distributed on either side of the coastline.

March: The probability remains least in the month of March. In the last 120 years, only 5 storms formed in the Indian Seas but none of them made landfall as a storm and mostly fizzled out over the sea itself. Towards fag end of March 2021, a depression did form over the Andaman Sea and could not grow beyond due to the suppressive environment.

April: During this month, the probability of cyclone is more over the Bay of Bengal than the Arabian Sea. These storms normally go for Myanmar and Bangla Desh. But exceptions are always there like 'FANI' which formed on 26th April and struck later Odisha coast.

May: This is the peak pre-monsoon month with maximum chances of the storm on either side of the coastline. Most of these cyclones strike Bangla Desh and only a few heads for West Bengal and Odisha.

An active Inter Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) is a prerequisite for churning any cyclone during this period. This does not seem to be the case at least for the next 10days. The existing conditions over the Andaman Sea and Southeast Bay of Bengal will preclude any disturbance growing beyond the initial stage. There is a cyclonic circulation coming up shortly over the South Bay of Bengal which will persist and shift closer to the Tamilnadu coast in the last few days of the month. In the absence of any substantial environmental support, the weather feature will not grow much but surely will enhance the pre-monsoon activity over Peninsular India and Sri Lanka. Accordingly, the prospects of the maiden cyclone of pre-monsoon roll over to May 2021.






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