Bay of Bengal (BoB) is gearing up to anchor maiden storm of post monsoon season 2021 shortly. Presently, a cyclonic circulation is entering South Andaman Sea from the Gulf of Thailand and Myanmar region. A low pressure area is likely to form in the next 24hr over Andaman Sea.
This weather system is expected to become well marked and intensify further in to a depression in the subsequent 24hr. Thereafter, rapid strengthening is likely and a potential storm seems imminent in the opening days of December.
Favorable oceanic conditions and conducive environment is an absolute essential for development of any perturbation. Sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear is compatible to support growth of the system.
Heat potential appears to be adequate for expansion of the depression and steer it to a storm, while deep in the ocean over central parts of BoB. Sufficiently long sea travel is supporting further intensification before reaching near the coastline on 03-04th December.
Indian seas have not seen a storm during the post monsoon season 2021, so far. It is delayed formation of storm this year and resembles with the pattern in 2017. Cyclonic ‘Ockhi’ was the only storm that year which developed during trail end of November and lasted till 06th Dec2017.
This storm also holds the distinction to sail over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea both, without making a landfall. The earliest storms of post monsoon season in the recent past were ‘Hudhud’ over BoB and ‘Luban’ over the Arabian Sea during the 1st week of October in 2014 and 2018 respectively.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over Andaman and Nicobar islands over the next 48-72 hours. The coastline of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha will come under the influence of the storm around 03rd December. Precise timings of inclement weather conditions and landfall will be assessed after 48hr. Available notice period be availed to prepare for meeting the challenge of first likely storm of the season.