Pre-Monsoon activities have now increased over Kerala and Tamil Nadu since the last many days. The reason for this can be traced back to a semi-permanent feature which is a North-South trough extending from eastern parts of the country up to South Interior Karnataka. Moreover, wind confluence is taking place from the Bay of Bengal as well as from the Arabian Sea which has increased the rain activities over Interior Tamil Nadu as well as over Kerala.
Now, we expect these on and off good rains to continue over both the states particularly interior parts of Tamil Nadu as well as over Kerala for the next two to three days. However, the intensity will be light over coastal Tamil Nadu including Chennai. Chennai may receive thundery activity, but chances of rains are less.
Interior parts of Tamil Nadu may get scattered on and off rains. Heavy rains in one or two pockets cannot be ruled out. Rain intensity will continue with light to moderate intensity over many parts of Kerala until the onset of Monsoon which is expected around June 4.
Temperatures will fall by two to three degrees during that time. Weather will become pleasant as the continuous flow of humid southwesterly or westerly winds continues over Kerala. However, intensity over Tamil Nadu will be patchy in comparison to Kerala.
After the onset of Monsoon, we do not expect any significant increase in rain activities over both states. There may be a marginal increase but heavy to very heavy rains which is a typical pattern after the onset on Monsoon will remain absent as of now. The progress of Monsoon is expected to remain slow as indicated by the models of Skymet. So, in spite of light to moderate rains, heavy rains are ruled out.
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Any information taken from here should be credited to Skymet Weather