Monsoon 2019 has been generous for the state of Rajasthan. During this Monsoon season, East Rajasthan has scored over West Rajasthan wherein East Rajasthan is excess by 53% and West Rajasthan is in normal category at 19%. Altogether the state is ended at a surplus of 40%.
Generally, after the withdrawal of Monsoon the state normally sees a sudden lull as Rajasthan is the first state to bid farewell to the Monsoon. However, this time the withdrawal of Monsoon has been delayed. Though in the last two years Monsoon withdrawing late. For instance, in 2018, the withdrawal commenced on September 29 and in 2017 it was on September 27.
This year Monsoon is likely to retreat by the second week of October.
In 2018, post the withdrawal of Monsoon, the first week of October saw very little activity. Last year, East Rajasthan recorded 1mm of rainfall against the normal of 6.8 mm while West Rajasthan recorded 0.2 mm of rainfall against 2.4 mm.
Generally, there is a complete lull after the withdrawal of Monsoon. However, this year the first two days of October have recorded good rains, unlike the last year. West Rajasthan on the first two days of October has recorded 5.2 mm while East Rajasthan has seen 19.5 mm of rainfall. This depicts that rain activity is more, unlike last year.
The rainfall is continuing because a Cyclonic Circulation is presently marked over Southwest Rajasthan and adjoining areas and this system is likely to remain over the area for the next two days or so. Thus, in the next 48 hours fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely with few places witnessing some moderate spells as well.
Thereafter the rainfall activity will slow down, we can say that on October 3 and 4 fairly widespread moderate activities is a possibility. Whereas on October 5 and 6, scattered rains can be seen. During this time, both scale and space will reduce as rains will be of light nature.
Subsequently, beyond these dates, it will pave way for the withdrawal of Monsoon. Post withdrawal, hotter days are ahead for Rajasthan and currently, the maximums are somewhere between three to five degrees below normal.
Image Credits – Veenaworld
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