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September Running Good Race , May Conclude Better Than Normal Rainfall

September 11, 2023 7:09 PM |

Like disappointing August, September also had started on distressing note, but recovered quickly.  Month of August was an all time low since the time record-keeping began in 1901. An overall deficiency of 35% in the core monsoon month raised genuine  concerns.  First 3 days of September had shortfall of 71%, 65% and 24% rainfall, respectively. The first week remained deficit by 24% when the Pan-India shortfall hovered around 11% of LPA.

Courtesy, low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, the recovery started thereafter.  Monthly shortfall stands at mere 4% as on 11thSeptember 2023 and reducing further. Another low pressure area likely over the Bay is promising continuation of improvement.  Better rains expected during the week  may swing the fortune soon and the coming days likely to accumulate rainfall, more than the normal.

Month of September is reputed with extreme volatility.  An unusual and unpredicted surplus of, 53% rainfall in September 2019 pulled the ‘below normal’ monsoon to nearly ‘excess’.  Last 4 year, from 2019 to 2022 have witnessed surplus September, of course with large variance.  Prior to that, previous 4 years, from 2015 to 2018 had recorded ‘deficit’ September, once again with sufficient margins.

September has a normal rainfall of 167.9mm.  Between 01 and 11 Sep 2023, a total of 68.7mm of rainfall has been recorded against the normal of 71.8mm, a shortfall of 4%. Pan-India rainfall is expected to be about normal for the next 4 days.  Later, the formation of a fresh low-pressure area and its subsequent movement over the east and central parts will enhance the monsoon activity leading to above-average rainfall for about a week. During this period, the month of September may log more than normal rainfall and the Pan-India deficit could also narrow down.  Overall, the month of September may capture decent rainfall, crossing the threshold mark of ‘normal’.

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