Skymet weather

Severe Cyclone Asani Moves Steadily Towards Coast, Landfall Unlikely

May 9, 2022 12:47 PM |

Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘ASANI’ is centered over West Central Bay of Bengal (BoB) about 14°N and 86°E. The storm is moving steadily northwestward to inch closer to Andhra Pradesh coast and is expected to move over Northwest BoB in the next 36hr.  Sky has turned cloudy over North Tamilnadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh in anticipation of storm movement but no impactful weather is expected in the next 24hr.

Outer peripherals of the cyclone have extended to Northeast BoB and Gangetic West Bengal.  Suburbs of Kolkata received few fleeting showers this morning and more sporadic rain and thundershowers are expected today.  However, no stirring or disturbing weather activity is likely.

The cloud dense overcast (CDO) mass of the cyclone, which developed sharp outlines earlier, is now showing some signs of elongation. Wrapped bands around the CDO are little asymmetrical now. Sea surface temperature in the forward section of the storm is dropping and the vertical wind shear also increasing the margin.

These environmental conditions emerging emphatically in the subsequent 24hr will not support further growth and even sustenance of intensity of storm. Eventually, Skymet visualizes storm loosing its steam gradually after 24hr.  Since the tropical storms have the history of being notorious, Skymet advises no lowering of guard, till definite signs of clearance appear on the horizon. The tropical storm Asani will continue tracking towards Andhra Pradesh coast and possibly come dangerously close, albeit with weakened zeal.  Extreme caution need to be exercised for the next 48hr.

There is a fair degree of consensus amongst the various numerical models, that the storm may not make any effective landfall over the Indian coast.  Probability is growing large that the cyclone will recurve short of coastline and run parallel to Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast. The closest position is likely to be abeam bordering areas of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha, nearly 100-150 km away from the shore.  The severe cyclonic storm is expected to weaken after 36 hr to an average cyclonic storm and erode further its intensity before commencing recurve track anytime after 11thMay.

Unlike the 2 devastating predecessor cyclones Amphan and Yaas in May 2020 and 2021, Asani will spare any severe damage to the coastline. Squally winds and heavy rains are likely covering Kakinada, Tuni, Vizag, Kalingapatnam, Ganjam, Gajapati, Gopalpur, Jagatsinghpur and Balasore. Extreme southern parts of Gangetic West Bengal like Digha, Diamond Harbour, Sundarban Delta, 24 Pargana and the capital city Kolkata may experience intermittent and sporadic showers but not leading to any anxious and serious situations. More vulnerable will be coastal areas of Bangladesh and adjoining Arakan Coast of Myanmar.

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